Green Bay Packers: PFF Predicts Aaron Jones Signs with Miami

The Green Bay Packers have a few key free agent decisions to make this offseason, but perhaps no player has fans split on what to do quite like Aaron Jones does.

To put it simply, this offense is just different when he’s on the field. In the run game, as a receiver out of the backfield, in the slot, or out wide, and even in pass protection picking up blitzes, Jones is an integral part of this Green Bay Packers team and was tailormade for the Matt LaFleur offense.

Over the last two seasons, Jones has amassed 2,158 rushing yards at five yards per carry with 25 touchdowns, including a league-leading 16 in 2019. Through the air, he has 829 receiving yards, a catch rate of over 73 percent, and five additional touchdowns.

This year specifically, he was fourth in yards per carry with 5.5, sixth in average yards after contact, ninth in runs of 10 yards or more, and eighth in total targets among running backs. These are just a few of the stats that show Jones’ effectiveness.

So considering Jones’ production the last two seasons as well as the importance in LaFleur’s system of having a running back that can be moved around and effective as both a runner and a pass-catcher, bringing Jones back seems like a no-brainer. And from a pure football perspective, it would be. However, that, unfortunately, isn’t how things work.

For starters, the salary cap is going to drop significantly in 2021 from $198.2 million this past season to around $180 million, as recently reoprted by Adam Schefter. According to Over the Cap, this puts Green Bay about $28.2 million over the salary cap. Meaning, before they can make any additions, they’re going to have to make some subtractions.

Secondly, as we’ve seen around the NFL for several years now, paying a running back top-dollar isn’t paramount for success. On top of that, even highly productive running backs have proven to be somewhat replaceable, whether it be with a cheap free-agent addition or a Day 3 draft pick. I mean, as a former fifth-round pick, Jones is a prime example of being able to find high-end talent at the position in the later rounds.

In fact, Marcus Mosher of Raiders Wire and Locked on Cowboys tweeted this graphic out on Tuesday, which illustrates perfectly that teams don’t have to spend big money on running backs to win a Super Bowl, let alone be successful:

With all of this going against Jones, I believe many Green Bay Packers fans understand that he won’t be back, despite the numerous rumors that have been leaked over the last 10 months mentioning that the two parties have been in contract negotiations. And Pro Football Focus agrees.

Recently PFF came published an article ranking the top free agent running backs this offseason and predicting where they will end up and what their contract will look like. In Jones’ case, he was the top running back — deservedly so — and is predicted to land in Miami on a deal for four years, worth $46 million with an average annual value of $11.5 million and $25 million guaranteed.

Here is some of what PFF had to say about Jones:

"“Jones has four straight seasons with a PFF rushing grade of 79.0 or higher, and he ranks fourth in receiving grade among running backs since the start of the 2019 season, behind only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, each of whom has had a big payday in large part because of that skill.”"

There was a report just a few weeks ago from Rob Demovsky of ESPN that said Green Bay had offered Jones top-5 running back money in terms of average annual value, but it lacked the uber-important guaranteed money. And if Jones is going to receive a contract that is in the neighborhood of $25 million guaranteed as suggested above, that is going to be well out of the Green Bay Packers’ price range.

For football reasons, but also because of who Aaron Jones is as a person, it’s going to be sad to see him go. But he’s earned the big payday that he is going to receive. Here in Green Bay, there is just too much stacked against him getting a new contract. The salary cap is shrinking; they just spent a second-round pick on AJ Dillon, and even for productive running backs in today’s NFL, getting paid is becoming more and more difficult.