Green Bay Packers: Red Zone Defense Turns Corner Heading into Playoffs
By Paul Bretl
After struggling in the red zone for much of the season, the Green Bay Packers’ defense has turned the corner the last three weeks.
When comparing the 2019 Green Bay Packers to the 2020 Green Bay Packers, roles have been flipped a bit. Last season, more often than not, it was the defense coming up with the big play, but this year, it has been the offense who has led the way.
A key component to their success on defense last season was their ability to keep touchdowns off the board when the opponent entered the red zone. When it was all said and done, the Packers allowed a red zone touchdown 53.7 percent of the time, which ranked as the 11th best rate in the NFL. And according to Football Outsiders, the 4.35 points that Green Bay gave up each red zone trip was the fourth-fewest.
This year, however, has been much different until recent weeks. After the Packers’ Week 14 matchup with Detroit, where they allowed three touchdowns on four red zone trips, their red zone defense ranked 28th, allowing a touchdown on 67.5 percent of the time. In fact, prior to Week 14, the only game where the Packer defense held their opponent to under 50 percent in the red zone was against a banged-up San Francisco 49ers team.
Instead of “bend but don’t break,” which became this defense’s mantra in 2019, this season, that became “bend and break.”
But the following week against Carolina, the tides began to turn. Overall the defense had what I believe was their best defensive performance at the time — although that would only last a week — and in what ended up being a one-score game, the red zone defense was the difference.
While the Green Bay Packers’ offense stalled in the second half, the Panthers were able to make it to the red zone five times that game. However, they left with a touchdown only once, and at the goal line on one trip, Krys Barnes forced a fumble. After the game, Aaron Rodgers called this a “confidence game” for the defense:
"“That’s winning football right there,” said Rodgers via Packers News. “… That’s just really good football. They’ve done that, I think, over the last couple years. They’ve been really stout in the red zone, but tonight was extra special. I think it is a confidence game.”"
The following week against Tennessee, who at the time was the NFL’s top-scoring offense and one of the best offenses in the red zone, the Green Bay Packers’ defense had their best all-around performance of the season. They swarmed to Derrick Henry, pressured Ryan Tannehill, took AJ Brown and Corey Davis completely out of the game, and forced two turnovers. On top of that, they allowed the Titans to find the end zone on only one of their two red zone trips.
Most recently against Chicago, it was another dominant performance in the red zone, similar to what we saw against Carolina. The Bears made it to the red zone on five occasions, yet they left with a touchdown only once.
Due to their recent success inside the 20-yard line in the last three weeks, the defense’s touchdown rate in the red zone has plummeted to 57.7 percent and ranks eighth in the NFL. A truly remarkable jump from 28th in such a short amount of time.
Not only in the previous three games, but really since Green Bay played Chicago in Week 12, the defense as a whole has been trending in the right direction. We’ve seen them getting after the quarterback with more regularity, the run defense has held their own, and we’ve seen more turnovers along with more aggressive play-calling from Mike Pettine.
But really, the biggest reason behind this recent surge from the defense is that many of the players are simply playing better. And the result is a red zone defense that has allowed only three touchdowns on 12 red zone trips in the last three games.
With the Green Bay Packers’ offense leading the NFL in points per game and DVOA, field goals are not going to beat this team. If the defense can continue to play at this same level — especially in the red zone — well, knocking the Packers out of the playoffs is going to be no easy task.