Green Bay Packers: 2 Realistic Ways to Clinch the No. 1 Seed

The Green Bay Packers have two realistic paths to clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 17.

If we rewind back to April’s draft, I can’t imagine that there were many out there who thought that the Green Bay Packers would be in the position that they are currently in. Through 15 games, they hold a 12-3 record and sit atop of the NFC.

And not only is Green Bay the No. 1 seed at the moment, but they appear to be peaking at the right time. The offense continues to be the best in football by several metrics, including Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and they also lead the league in points per game. On top of that, and perhaps even more encouraging, is that the defense has played their two best games of football the last two weeks.

During Aaron Rodgers’ time with the Packers, Green Bay has only been the No. 1 seed just one time, which ended with them being bounced in the divisional round of the playoffs by the New York Giants in 2011. And of the four NFC Championships that Rodgers has played in, all have been on the road.

Well, I’d say now is as good of a time as any for that to change.

In the season, finally, the Green Bay Packers head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears, and when it comes to clinching the NFC’s top seed, there are two realistic ways that they can do so.

Green Bay Packers beat the Bears

This is the most obvious way and the simplest way to clinch the one seed. At 12-3, the Packers are a game better than both the 11-4 New Orleans Saints and the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks, so a win takes any tie-breaking scenarios off the table. As I said, pretty simple.

This is a Bears team, however, that since last playing Green Bay, has won four games in a row, and they now find themselves with a meaningful Week 17 game as well. Chicago controls their own destiny, and with a win, they will clinch the final playoff spot in the NFC.

The Chicago offense has been reinvigorated over the last four games with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback — which is weird to say — and a willingness to actually give the ball to David Montgomery. During this four-game stretch, the Bears are averaging 36 points per game, although it’s worth pointing out that they haven’t exactly faced the toughest opponents.

Chicago’s four wins have come against Detroit, whose defense ranks 32nd in points per game allowed and 32nd by DVOA. Houston ranks 26th and 30th in those same respective categories. Minnesota, who ranks 28th in points per game and 18th by DVOA. With their most recent win coming over Jacksonville and their defense that ranks 31st in both points per game and DVOA.

No divisional matchup should ever be taken lightly, especially on the road, and the Bears are certainly playing better football than what they were the last time these two teams met. With that said, this will easily be Chicago’s toughest test since Week 12 when they faced –you guessed it– the Packers.

Green Bay Packers lose AND Seattle loses to San Francisco

This scenario requires Green Bay receiving some help, which is something that you never want to rely on, but if the Packers do lose to Chicago, there is still some hope.

If Green Bay were to lose to the Bears and both New Orleans and Seattle win, the Packers would all of a sudden become the three seed. This would put all three teams at 12-4, and Green Bay’s head-to-head win over the Saints would no longer matter. Instead, they would use a three-team tie-breaker, which first looks at head-to-head matchups, but not all three teams have played each other, so then the conference records become the tie-breaker.

In this scenario, with the Packers losing and Seattle and New Orleans winning, the Green Bay would finish with a 9-3 conference record, as would Seattle. The Saints, however, would be the one seed with a 10-2 NFC record. This is why the Packers need the Seahawks to lose because it would take the three-team tie-breaker off the table.

If Green Bay loses, New Orleans wins, and Seattle loses, that puts the Packers and Saints at 12-4 and the Seahawks at 11-5. Now in the two-team tie-breaking scenario, the head-to-head matchup applies since the Packers and Saints have played each other. And, of course, Green Bay won, so they would be the one seed.

This scenario is a bit more complicated than just winning, and as I said, we don’t’ want to have to rely on the 49ers beating the Seahawks. However, the Niners did just beat Arizona, it’s a divisional matchup, and it is a home game for San Francisco, so it’s certainly possible.