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Green Bay Packers: 3 Ways They Can Clinch the NFC’s Top Seed

By Paul Bretl

DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 29: Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers have a conversation during warm ups prior to the start of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 29: Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers have a conversation during warm ups prior to the start of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images) /
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With some help over the weekend, the Green Bay Packers are on the verge of clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Here are three ways that they can do it.

By the end of Week 14, the Green Bay Packers were the new No. 1 seed in the NFC with some help from the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked off the New Orleans Saints. This put both the Packers and Saints at 10-3, but with Green Bay holding the head-to-head tie-breaker, they were the one seed.

In the NFL, you never want to assume that another team is going to lose. So when going through possible scenarios of how Green Bay could clinch the NFC’s top seed, the most likely option was that they would have to win their final three games. However, while the Packers were enjoying a rare victory Sunday, they received some more help, courtesy of the Chiefs and Jets, who were able to beat the Saints and Los Angeles Rams, respectively.

Because of this, the Green Bay Packers don’t have to win out to clinch the No. 1 seed. Of course, that’s the easiest way to achieve the one seed, and it’s the route I hope they take, but it is no longer a requirement. These losses by New Orleans and Los Angeles have afforded the Packers some leniency.

So with all of that said, outside of winning their final two games, here are three ways that the Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed. Yes, there are other scenarios that could occur, but these three are the simplest and most likely. Below is what the current NFC playoff picture looks like.

  1. Green Bay (11-3)
  2. New Orleans (10-4)
  3. Seattle (10-4)
  4. Washington (6-8)
  5. Los Angeles (9-5)
  6. Tampa Bay (9-5)
  7. Arizona (8-6)

A Win over Tennessee & a Seattle Loss to Los Angeles in Week 16

The Green Bay Packers can clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed as early as Week 16 with a win over the Tennessee Titans along with some help from the Los Angeles Rams, who hopefully, bounce back against Seattle.

This loss would put the Seahawks at 10-5, so even if the Packers were to lose to Chicago in Week 17, they would still finish the season at 12-4, with one loss less than Seattle. And by holding the tie-breaker over the Saints, both teams can finish with the same record, and the Packers have the advantage.

Green Bay Packers Beat Chicago in Week 17

Since Tennessee is an AFC opponent, when it comes to playoff tie-breakers in the NFC, a loss to the Titans doesn’t affect Green Bay. At all. That’s right, they can lose to the Titans and still clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over Chicago in Week 17.

In this scenario, if we assume that New Orleans and Seattle win out, that puts all three teams at 12-4, meaning the Packers’ head-to-head matchup with the Saints no longer matters because it is a three-team tie-breaker and no longer head-to-head. So the next tie-breaker would be their respective conference records. With a win over Chicago, the Packers would be 10-2 in the NFC. If the Saints win out, their conference record is 10-2 as well, while Seattle’s would be 9-3. Thus eliminating them from the one seed conversation.

With Seattle out of the picture, the tie-breaker then goes back to head-to-head between the Packers and Saints, which we all know is held by Green Bay, and gives them the NFC’s top seed.

Green Bay Packers Beat Tennessee & San Francisco beats Seattle in Week 17

If we flip the previous scenario around, with Green Bay beating Tennessee but losing to Chicago, then they are going to need additional help because the Bears are, of course, an NFC team, so a loss to them hurts Green Bay in that three-team tie-breaking scenario mentioned above.

A win over Tennessee but a loss to Chicago puts the Packers at 12-4 and 9-3 in the NFC. If we assume that the Saints and Seahawks win out and finish at 12-4 as well, then we revisit the three-team tie-breaker determined by conference records. Green Bay and Seattle would both be 9-3 in the NFC, and the Saints would earn the one seed with their 10-2 conference record.

dark. Next. Packers Run Defense Trending in Right Direction

This is why Green Bay would need some help. If they lose to Chicago to finish 12-4, New Orleans wins out to finish 12-4; the Packers then need Seattle to lose to San Francisco. The reason being, this would give the Seahawks five losses, and there would be no three-team tie-breaker–only head-to-head between the Packers and Saints.

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