Green Bay Packers See Much Improved Efficiency on 3rd Downs

One key area that we’ve seen the Green Bay Packers’ offense improve significantly on is their ability to sustain drives by converting third downs.

This season the Green Bay Packers’ offense has been one of the most productive in the NFL. They rank as the second-best by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, behind only Kansas City, and they are averaging the most points per game. So what’s the big difference between this year and last?

Well, as is always the case in football, there isn’t just one reason, but several. Some of which includes a step forward in Year 2 of the Matt LaFleur offense, simply better play from the players, as well as Aaron Rodgers being much better off play-action along with the deep ball. But another key contributor has been their much-improved efficiency on third downs.

Last season this was an area where Green Bay struggled. Their conversion rate of 37.6 percent ranked 19th in the NFL. However, this year, that figure has jumped to 48.46 percent, which is good for fourth-best and is less than two percent behind Kansas City for first place.

Once again, there are a few reasons behind their newfound success. The first being that they’re facing fewer third and long situations after picking up more yards on first and second downs. In 2019, Green Bay had to gain seven or more yards on nearly 54 percent of their third-down attempts. This season, they’ve had to do that just 44.6 percent of the time.

On the flip side, they are facing more third short situations; 33.1 percent to be exact, which is a significant increase over the 18.2 percent from one year ago. As a result, the average distance to gain on third downs has dropped from 7.89 yards to only 6.78 yards in 2020.

Another major factor that can’t be overlooked is the play of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is putting together an MVP-caliber season in part because of his improved efficiency on third downs. His completion percentage is up nearly 11 percent at 65.3, while his passer rating has sky-rocketed from 87.5 to 114.7, and Rodgers already has nine touchdown passes on third down after totaling six all of last season.

And as I mentioned above, it can’t be overstated what a second season in the LaFleur offense has done for this group. There is a deeper understanding from everyone involved, and LaFleur’s play-calling, which heavily utilizes play-action, pre-snap motion, and misdirection, has schemed players open beautifully, thus making third downs — as well as first and second downs — easier on Rodgers and the rest of the team.

This past Sunday night against the Chicago Bears, we saw just how dominant this Green Bay Packers’ offense can be when they are converting their third-down opportunities. They scored on their first three possessions of the game and put up 41 points in three quarters after converting six of their nine third-down attempts at that point in the game, including starting five for five. And remember, this was a top-5 Bears’ defense by DVOA.

There is a myriad of reasons that have led to the Year 2 leap in LaFleur’s system, but the Packers’ ability to sustain drives by converting their third-down attempts at a much higher rate has been a big reason why.