Packers: Time for More Snaps for Rashan Gary & Less for Preston Smith

It is time for the Green Bay Packers to start giving some of Preston Smith’s snaps to Rashan Gary.

One very noticeable difference between last year’s Green Bay Packers’ defense and this years is in their ability to get after the quarterback or the lack thereof that ability. In 2019, led by Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, the Packers were top-5 in the NFL in pressure rate. However, this year, they rank 29th.

This undoubtedly has had a negative trickle-down to the rest of the defense. It’s not a coincidence that Green Bay isn’t generating the same number of turnovers that they did a year ago and that their red zone defense has struggled as well.

As is often the case in football, there isn’t just one player or one reason in particular for this major shift and lack of consistent production, but Preston Smith’s rapid decline has been one of the bigger contributors to this unit’s regression.

Smith was coming off a 2019 season where he tallied 12 sacks, the eighth-most in football and his 62 total pressures were the 15th most among all edge rushers, according to Pro Football Focus. But through 10 games this season, Smith has only 15 pressures and two sacks. If we extrapolate that level of production out for a full 16 game season, he will finish with 24 pressures and three sacks—a far cry from what we saw just one year ago.

As you can imagine, there has been quite a bit of speculation surrounding what Smith’s lack of production could be stemming from; most notably, that he’s been asked to drop into coverage more this season. But a quick look at the numbers shows that’s just not true. Smith dropped into coverage 148 times in 2019, and currently, he is on pace to do so just 122 times this year. The truth is, Smith simply isn’t playing nearly as well.

While Preston has been trending in the wrong direction for much of the year, one player who is building momentum is Rashan Gary. Gary had a fast start to the season, recording seven pressures and two sacks during the Green Bay Packers’ first two games. Unfortunately, he would tweak his ankle in Week 3 against New Orleans, and for the next several games, I don’t believe that he was himself because of it.

However, that hasn’t been the case the past two weeks. Gary had a career day against Jacksonville, recording a sack, seven pressures, and he absolutely destroyed the Jaguars’ final drive. Against Indianapolis, he tallied four more pressures, which put him at 22 for the season, the second-most on the team behind only Za’Darius.

When it comes to their lackluster pass-rush, with six games left in the regular season, the Green Bay Packers have two options. They can either continue playing Preston Smith on 81 percent of their defensive plays, or – and hear me out on this one – they can start giving Rashan Gary more reps.

This season, Gary has seen the field on only 41 percent of the defensive snaps – this includes missing two games with an injury – and was out-snapped by Smith against the Colts, 67 to 35. In terms of production, with fewer opportunities, Gary has made a bigger impact and been a more efficient pass rusher. By Pro Football Focus’ ($) pass-rush productivity metric, which measures how often pressure is generated with a heavier weighting towards sacks, Gary ranks 23rd and Smith ranks 91st out of 113 eligible edge rushers. That’s a monstrous gap between the two.

On top of that, Gary is the future at this position for Green Bay, while Smith is likely in his final season. Although his contract isn’t up in 2021, the Packers can save $8 million in cap space by moving on from Smith. And in an offseason that is going to see the salary cap shrink, this is a move that seems all but inevitable.

Now, having said all of that, I’m not saying that Smith’s workload should be trimmed from the current 81 percent that he’s at down to 30 percent. He’s still an important part of this team and a player that hopefully comes alive over the final six games of the regular season. But his snap count should be decreased simply because he has been ineffective, and Gary, who has been playing very well as of late, should be the beneficiary with more opportunities.

Only time will tell if this actually happens. As we’ve seen this season, this defense under Mike Pettine can be slow to make adjustments. But at this moment, Gary is the better player, and he deserves more playing time because of it.