Green Bay Packers at Colts: Behind Enemy Lines Week 11

This week for “Behind Enemy Lines,” we get an inside look at the Green Bay Packers’ tough Week 11 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

It’s Week 11, and the Green Bay Packers are coming off what many would call an ugly win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. There was a lack of energy once again that led to some poor play from Green Bay, but fortunately, the talent gap between them and the Jaguars was large enough that they were able to overcome it.

This week will be much more challenging, however. The 6-3 Indianapolis Colts are very good in all three phases of the game, especially on defense, where they are ranked as the fourth-best unit in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Not to mention that their style of offense could be troublesome for this Green Bay Packers’ defense.

To help us get to know this uncommon opponent, in this edition of “Behind Enemy Lines,” I had the pleasure of talking with Thomas Carannate over at Horseshoe Heroes, where they cover anything and everything about the Indianapolis Colts. Thomas was kind enough to answer five of my questions about this Colts team, and I, of course, reciprocated and answered five of his about the Green Bay Packers. So be sure to check that out on their site as well.

1. We are all fairly familiar with Phillip Rivers, but perhaps not so much with Phillip Rivers the Colt. How has this season gone for him, and what is the offense like with him under center?

Thomas: It’s been … a roller coaster ride, to say the least. Rivers, up until a few weeks ago, was wildly inconsistent, and fans largely pinned the losses on him because of some horrendous and untimely turnovers. And it’s hard not to buy into the criticism because the Colts’ offensive line has been protecting him better than he’s seen in years, and the Colts’ defense is the best in the league.

At that point, it’s hard not to blame the veteran quarterback. But the Colts’ offense has come into focus over the last month. Rivers actually told the media that he read all of the critical articles about him through Week 5 because he wanted to see what everyone was saying. He’s been very good since then, spreading the ball around and making some big throws. Everyone’s still concerned that those turnovers will rear their ugly head again, however.

Takeaway: I mentioned above that I believe this Colts’ offense can give the Green Bay Packers issues, and a big reason is because of Rivers in the quick passing game. Even with a good pass rush, it is difficult to pressure Rivers because he does get the ball out so quickly, especially to RB Nyheim Hines. This style of play is worrisome for a Packers’ defense under Mike Pettine that has played a lot of soft zone coverage this season. That means there could be plenty of easy completions for Rivers and YAC opportunities for his pass catchers.

2. What is a strength as well as a weakness of this Colts team?

Thomas: The biggest strength for this team is its defense. The addition of DeForest Buckner in the offseason has proven to be huge, which has opened up opportunities for fellow pass rushers and defensive linemen Justin Houston, Grover Stewart, Denico Autry, and Tyquan Lewis. The Colts are getting back Kemoko Turay this week too, which will be huge. We also can’t overlook the one-year deals for Xavier Rhodes and TJ Carrie as well as the third-round pick the team spent on rookie standout Justin Blackmon. And I think the NFL knows how impactful Darius Leonard is.

As for the Colts’ biggest weakness, it’s offensive identity. Many believed this would be a run-first team, but the injury to Marlon Mack in Week 1 tossed those plans aside because rookie Jonathan Taylor was thrust into the starting role, and he’s clearly not ready to carry a full workload. Jordan Wilkins is solid, but not RB1 material. Nyheim Hines is a playmaker, but he needs to be utilized properly. Rivers has been throwing the ball way too much for everyone’s liking, but the team hasn’t had much of a choice. Injuries to Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell, TY Hilton, Mo Alie-Cox, Trey Burton, and Jack Doyle haven’t really allowed the offense to get in a rhythm, but that’s slowly starting to change as more and more players get healthy.

Takeaway: I could sum up my thoughts on this Colts’ defense from what I’ve seen, but why not let Aaron Rodgers do it. In a Zoom call with reporters earlier this week, Rodgers was asked about the Indianapolis defense, and he responded with a quick scouting report of this unit (via Packers Wire):

"“They good at all three levels. They’ve got a really nice front, penetrating, sets the edge, some really good players up front, they’ve been doing a good job getting after the passer. They’re a vision defense. A lot of vision to the football. They swarm. Create turnovers. Play the timing of the defense really well. Really good linebackers, fast and athletic who flow downhill in the gaps. Good tacklers. The backend does a nice job communicating and getting on the same page running all the different coverages they run. Seem to be smart, heady players. Vision to the football. And they don’t make a lot of mistakes. They make you go the distance, make you earn it. They’ve been tough against the run and pass, I believe they’re top five in both categories.”"

3. Who is one player on offense and one player on defense that Packer fans may not know very well but could make an impact on Sunday’s game?

Thomas: On offense, we have to go with Mo Alie-Cox. Though he’s one of three tight ends on the roster, when he’s started (due to injuries to Burton and Doyle), he’s been an absolute force. He even led the Colts in receiving at one point. He’s a big body who can catch passes up the seam and work well in open space, and everyone knows how much Rivers loves targeting his tight ends. If he has a big game against the Packers, folks in Green Bay shouldn’t be surprised.

On defense, we’d say Grover Stewart, who has emerged as a premier run-stuffing defensive tackle and has quickly become a free agency priority for Indy (his contract expires after this year). His stats don’t exactly jump off the page because he’s mostly making his impact as a disruptor, but we have to say his career-high 34 tackles through just nine games this year proves how much he’s improved and benefitted from the presence of other studs on the defense.

Takeaway: Mo Alie-Cox has emerged as an efficient but also explosive target for Phillip Rivers this season. On 25 targets, he has hauled in 20 of them, averaging nearly 15 yards per catch with two touchdowns. And his 2.76 yards per route run are the most by any tight end this year.

When it comes to Grover Stewart, as Thomas said, he doesn’t fill the stat sheet each week, but he does take up space and affect the run game. By Pro Football Focus’ ($) run-stop percentage metric, which is the rate at which a player records a run-stop, also known as a run play that constitutes a “failure” for the offense, Stewart’s rate of 11.3 percent ranks 11th out of 144 eligible interior defensive linemen.

4. The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL; if opposing offenses are going to have some level of success against them, how do they go about that?

Thomas: So far this year, the Colts’ biggest flaw on defense is getting thrown off balance in the first half. The Cleveland Browns put up 20 points on them in the first half about a month ago. The Cincinnati Bengals scored 24 a week later. The lowly Jags recorded 14 in the first 30 minutes back in Week 1. If the defense gets off to a slow start, the offense has trouble catching up because it doesn’t exactly feature a potent aerial attack.

If the Packers can mix up the play calls, work around the Colts’ pass rush and work to neutralize Darius Leonard, a fast start could be the biggest difference on Sunday. It’s clear what Indy’s strengths are, but they’ve been exposed in the early going multiple times now. The Packers have the weapons to continue that trend.

Takeaway: This is good news for the Green Bay Packers because they have been very good at getting off to fast starts this season. Through nine games, they’ve scored on their opening possession eight times; the first time they didn’t was last week against Jacksonville. On top of that, they are averaging 17.2 first-half points per game, which is the third-most in the NFL.

If they can find success early on against the Colts, it’s not only going to be good for the Green Bay offense, but it will also provide the defensive side of the ball some additional help, as the Indianapolis offense struggles to play from behind as Thomas mentioned.

Just as they’ve done all season, the Packers need to get Aaron Jones going, whether that’s on the ground or through the air, take the easy completions, and know when to capitalize on the deep shots.

5. How do you see the game playing out, and what is your final score prediction?

Thomas: If Davante Adams is truly hobbled and Allen Lazard can’t make a significant impact, I’m feeling a narrow Colts win. I’d say a 22-17 affair. And that’s the direction it seems like it’s trending in. Aside from the Packers’ demolition of the depleted San Francisco 49ers, they’ve looked very beatable in recent weeks against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Buccaneers.

We’re not discounting Green Bay’s victories over the Texans and Niners, but we know that those teams are well below the Packers’ competition. Plus, Indy has had 10 days of rest to prepare for this one and have been playing their best football to date. The win would mean a lot more to Indy as well, considering its battle with the Titans in the AFC South is likely going to come down to the wire, while the Pack will probably have no issue kicking rocks in the face of the Bears and Vikings.

Takeaway: As always, I’ll save my final prediction for our Sunday morning article here at Dairyland Express, but I will say that I’ve been incredibly torn on this one all week.