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Milwaukee Brewers: The Curious Case of 2020 Christian Yelich

By Harrison Carter

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - AUGUST 31: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts after striking out in the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park on August 31, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - AUGUST 31: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts after striking out in the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park on August 31, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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It was a rough season for Milwaukee Brewers’ star Christian Yelich, so what went wrong?

Even in a year where almost nothing feels certain, the struggles of one of the MLB’s best stars, Christian Yelich, was a surprise. The 2018 NL MVP and 2019 NL MVP runner-up had a tough go in the shortened 2020 season for the Milwaukee Brewers.

In 2019, the Brewers slugging outfielder slashed an impressive .329/.429/.671, good for an NL leading 1.100 OPS and a WAR of 7.0 in his 130 games played. Unfortunately, Yelich could not finish off his MVP caliber year as he fouled a ball into his right kneecap, breaking the kneecap. This season, Yelich slashed .205/.356/.420 in 58 games good for an OPS of .786 and a WAR of 0.2 (a pace of about 0.45 WAR in 130 games).

So, what happened to Yelich? Will the nine-year $215 million deal the Milwaukee Brewers gave him in March come back to bite them? Let’s dive into the numbers. (All statistics are courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Let’s start with the good news first. Christian Yelich continues to hit the ball hard. On batted balls in 2020, Yelich averaged an exit velocity of 94 mph, good for 99th percentile in the league. See Yelich hammering a home run that left the bat at 112 mph and traveled 460 feet as an example. Additionally, Yelich continued to spray the ball relatively well, as he pulled 30.9% of batted balls, went straight 42.3% of the time, and went to the opposite field 26.7% of the time. Compare that to someone like Joey Gallo, for example, who pulled the ball roughly 49% of the time in 2020.

Being able to hit the ball to all zones of the field is a good indicator of a good hitter, and it does not allow the defense to easily use a shift. Yelich has showed throughout his career that he can hit the ball anywhere on the field, and that did not change in 2020. Yelich also walked a lot in 2020, as he had a BB% of 18.6% in 2020 which was in the 98% percentile of hitters. A lack of walking was not the problem. So what is the reasoning for Yelich’s offensive struggles in 2020?

Some of Yelich’s struggles are simply attributed to (bad) luck. The MLB average for Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is roughly .300, meaning that about 3/10 balls that are hit in play will be hits. In 2020 Yelich had a BABIP of .259, down from .355 in 2019. As stated earlier, Yelich is still hitting the ball extremely hard, so he has simply hit the ball at the wrong spots sometimes.

The more probable reasons for Yelich’s struggles are strikeout problems and simply making contact. Yelich struck out on about 31% of his plate appearances which was in the 11th percentile for hitters. That is an increase of about 10% from last year to this year. Yelich also seemed to have a worse sense of the strike zone compared to last year.

In 2019, Yelich chased 17.6% of the time, but in 2020, his chase percentage rose to 23.6%. Yelich also heavily struggled hitting the fastball in 2020. Yelich hit .239 on fastballs and whiffed on fastballs 25.2% of the time, compared to 2019 where Yelich hit .347 (!!!) on fastballs and whiffed just 16.4% of the time.

Finally, Yelich was a more passive hitter this year. In 2019, Yelich did damage early and often, as he swung at the first pitch 29.5% of the time. Compared to 2020, where Yelich swung at the first pitch just 13.4% of the time. Yelich seemed reluctant to swing the bat early in the count, and he got himself into deeper holes that he was unable to dig out of.

It seems unfair to judge anyone off of such a strange year in which there were only 60 games compared to a normal 162. The good news is that Christian Yelich is a premiere baseball player that any team would love to add to its roster. He has the versatility to play any position in the outfield, and he has been a well above average hitter throughout his career, becoming an elite hitter the past couple of years.

In 2020, when Yelich made contact the ball was hit hard and hit everywhere on the field. Unfortunately for all players, you cannot hit the ball hard if you do not hit the ball at all. Yelich made less contact with the ball than he has in any year by a wide margin.

There is much reason to believe that Yelich will revert to his normal self in 2021. First, if he continues to hit the ball hard, his luck will improve, and the ball will find holes and result in hits. Second, I believe Yelich will be more aggressive at the plate and start swinging at the first pitch more often. He has had great success throughout his career swinging at the first pitch. Additionally, swinging earlier in the count should result in fewer strikeouts.

Lastly, 2021 will be another year away from his injury. It would not surprise me if Yelich still had his knee in the back of his mind while at bat this year. This is normal. As time goes on, he will be more comfortable at the plate and should get to a point where he doesn’t think about his knee. Yes, Christian Yelich struggled in 2020. However, Yelich is a resilient baseball player. Milwaukee Brewers fans should look forward to seeing Yelich rebound next year and playing at an elite level for years to come.

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