Green Bay Packers: Now or Never for Mike Pettine Against Injured 49ers

Against a banged-up Niners’ offense that is going to rely heavily on the run, it’s now or never for Mike Pettine and the Green Bay Packers’ defense.

We all remember what happened in the NFC Championship Game back in January, as the San Francisco 49ers ran all over the Green Bay Packers defense. For the second time that season, the Packers were dominated in Santa Clara, with the Niners rushing for 285 yards and Jimmy Garoppolo only passing the ball eight times. I’ll say it again, Garoppolo had eight pass attempts.

After that game, Head Coach Matt LaFleur had a decision to make, move on from Mike Pettine, who was a Mike McCarthy hire, or decide to bring him back for one more season. As we all know, LaFleur chose the latter, and it’s a move that hasn’t paid off.

By DVOA, the Green Bay Packers’ defense was average last season, but they were really good in a few areas. They were one of the best teams in the NFL at pressuring the quarterback, they forced the seventh most turnovers, and in the red-zone, they kept opponents out of the end zone. As a result, the defense allowed only 19.6 points per game that season, which was the ninth-best in the league.

However, this year has been different. Much different. Those same areas that were strengths of the Packers in 2019 are now weaknesses. In terms of pressure rate Green Bay ranks 29th, they are last in turnovers, and they are allowing a touchdown per game more than they did a year ago while ranking 28th in red-zone defense.

While there is certainly no question that a majority of the players on the defensive side of the ball are not playing near their full potential, when absolutely nothing is going right, it all starts with Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine.

Pettine strongly believes in not giving up the big play; rather, if opponents are going to score, it’s going to be because they put together a long, sustained drive. The belief is that the Packer defense will come up with a stop or a turnover, or the offense will simply stall since stringing together 10 plus play drives isn’t easy. But the issue is that instead of dictating what the offense does, it’s the other way around.

The Packers play an incredibly high amount of dime packages – with six defensive backs on the field – and Pettine has been reluctant to blitz up until recent weeks. That means if the defensive front isn’t winning their one-on-one battles – which they aren’t – then there is no pressure on the quarterback. And because Pettine doesn’t want to give up the big play, his corners are oftentimes giving 7 to 10 yards of cushion off the line of scrimmage, which sets up easy completions for the quarterback.

One of the worst things that can happen in football is when you know exactly what the offense is going to do, yet you can’t stop them. And that is exactly what happened against Minnesota. With gusts up to 40 mph, everyone knew the Vikings’ game plan was to feed Dalvin Cook, but this defense didn’t come close to stopping him.

The gap integrity of the defensive line and the linebackers was extremely poor, there were countless missed tackles, and on a blustery day, Pettine routinely had his corners lining up 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. Kirk Cousins completed 11 passes, and not one of them traveled more than 10 yards in the air.

Not to mention that it doesn’t appear that players are always put in the best positions to succeed. A prime example is Darnell Savage. Let him play that honey badger role, where his dynamic ability can shine. Or asking Preston Smith to make plays in coverage.

As I mentioned above, some of this is on the players. However, when the same problems are happening over and over again, more of the blame falls on the coach. And it’s Mike Pettine who is calling the plays.

Now, I must say that I am not a big advocate of firing a coach midseason, and I’m not here predicting that’s what is going to happen to Pettine. But this Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers will be up against a depleted, oh, and I mean depleted Niners’ offense.

As of Monday evening, Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and Ben Garland have already been ruled out. On top of that, Deebo Samuel didn’t practice at all last week, and Tevin Coleman left Sunday’s game with an injury.

Much like the Minnesota game on Sunday, we all know what the 49ers’ game plan is going to be this Thursday. Run the ball. Between knowing what’s coming and the fact that the Niners are missing several key players on offense, if we see the same results from this Packers’ defense, whether it’s Friday morning or at the end of the season, the writing will be on the wall for Pettine.

In his post-game Zoom call with reporters on Sunday, LaFleur summed it up quite well when discussing the Green Bay run defense:

"“We better get it fixed and fast because I have a pretty good idea of what’s going to happen (Thursday) in San Francisco. … The formula has been written, We’ve got to step up and get it fixed. If not, we’re going to keep getting these results.”"