Green Bay Packers: PFF Projects High End & Low End of 2020 Win Totals

Pro Football Focus projects the high end and low end of the Green Bay Packers’ 2020 win total. Here is how they fared.

When the NFL schedules are released every spring, there are always tons of articles that follow with writers making their record predictions for the upcoming year. I, too, am guilty of that.

However, there is so much randomness involved in an NFL season that making accurate predictions months in advance is a difficult task. Heck, that’s even true at the beginning of the season. With injuries, unexpected players overachieving, and stars who underperform, along with a myriad of other variables, there are just too many unknowns.

So in order to factor in some of these variables and to create more accurate record projections, Pro Football Focus’ research and development team ran simulated seasons to capture the high end (90th percentile) of a team’s win total as well as the low end (10th percentile).

Here is how the Green Bay Packers faired in each instance.

High end: 11-5

Pro Football Focus notes a few key factors that lead to the Packers’ success in these simulations. On defense, the pass-rush is once again very effective, and Jaire Alexander is able to limit the big plays as he solidifies himself as one of the top corners in the NFC.

Meanwhile, on offense, the emergence of Allen Lazard and Jace Sternberger gives Aaron Rodgers and the passing game a much-needed boost, and overall the offense is just much more effective.

Of the two scenarios, this outcome is easily the most likely. While many are focused on who the Green Bay Packers didn’t add this offseason, many have forgotten the talent that this team already has.

Offensively, very few teams can boast about the quarterback-running back-receiver combo that the Packers can. Not to mention that in addition to Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams, Green Bay also has one of, if not the best left tackle in football in David Bakhtiari.

On defense, as Pro Football Focus mentioned, the Packers have a mean pass-rush led by Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. Along with a secondary that is loaded with young and talented players.

It’s Year 2 in the Matt LaFleur offense, and Green Bay has an excellent trio of running backs to rely on as well. While in the NFC North Green Bay won’t be facing any really bad teams, they aren’t playing any really good teams either. 11-5 is very much within reach this season.

Low end: 6-10

In this unfortunate outcome, Pro Football Focus points out that the Packers’ passing game was unable to improve, and as a result, the offense really suffered. Even with an emphasis on the run game. Defensively, opponents gashed Green Bay’s run defense, and it’s noted that the linebacker position, in particular, was a significant issue.

Of course, anything is possible, but barring key injuries, it’s difficult for me to envision Green Bay finishing 6-10. While question marks remain at the receiver position, this is a group that has had success at the NFL level; they just need to do it more consistently.

Lazard proved to be a reliable target in 2019, Devin Funchess posted an eight touchdown, 840-yard season in 2017, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling averaged nearly 20 yards per catch with two touchdowns during the first half of last season. Equanimeous St. Brown will also be returning as well.

However, those aren’t the only pass-catchers that Rodgers will have to throw to. In LaFleur’s offense, we will see Sternberger, Josiah Deguara, Robert Tonyan, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Tyler Ervin, and A.J. Dillon all getting opportunities in the passing game.

On top of that, the three-headed monster in the backfield of Jones, Dillon, and Williams may be the best trio in the league. Yes, the offense was inconsistent last season, but in Year 2 under LaFleur and with these players available, I’m not nearly as concerned as most are.

Looking at the defensive side of the ball, I agree, there is reason to be concerned about the Packers’ run defense. With that said, I don’t see it being such a major issue that it plays a crucial role in Green Bay going 6-10. Now, it could absolutely stop them from making it to the NFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl, but I don’t see it resulting in a below .500 season.

As I mentioned in the previous section, there is A LOT of talent in this group. With The Smiths, Clark, Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, Kevin King, and Adrian Amos, more often than not, the defense is going to be the reason the Green Bay Packers win a game, not the reason that they lose one.