Predicting the Green Bay Packers 2020 Win Total
By Isaac Greig
How will the Green Bay Packers follow up their surprisingly successful 2019 regular season? Well, here’s a prediction for how many games they could win.
The Green Bay Packers had plenty of clutch performances during the 2019 regular season, winning six of their seven games that were decided by seven points or fewer. That led to a 13-3 record and the No. 2 seed in the NFC for the postseason.
Overall the team, especially the defense, was much improved for a good portion of the year until they infamously collapsed against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
The offseason that followed didn’t go how the Packers’ fanbase planned but the roster is still full of young, ascending players, and will likely be more talented than last year. The Green Bay Packers also have an easier schedule than last year, as their current strength of schedule ranks them 15th overall.
Many NFL experts see the Packers regressing toward the mean but Green Bay’s mean is winning the division and competing for a trip to the Super Bowl. The result of the 2020 regular season will be very similar to that of 2019. The Green Bay Packers will compete for a first-round bye and maintain NFC North dominance.
Now to the unveiling…
Week 1 – @ MIN: W
Week 2 – DET: W
Week 3 – @ NO: L
Week 4 – ATL: W
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – @ TB: W
Week 7 – @ HOU: L
Week 8 – MIN: W
Week 9 – @ SF: L
Week 10 – JAX: W
Week 11 – @ IND: W
Week 12 – CHI: W
Week 13 – PHI: W
Week 14 – @ DET: L
Week 15 – CAR: W
Week 16 – TEN: W
Week 17 – @ CHI: W
Final Record: 12-4
Divisional Games
The Packers went undefeated in the division last year and the overall competition level hasn’t changed much but I still expect Green Bay to lose one division game in 2020.
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions had two close games last year but the Packers found a way to win both. The Packers should handle the Lions during Week 2 in Green Bay but the result in Detroit might be different.
This time around I expect the Lions to figure it out and beat the Packers in Week 14. The Lions had significant roster turnover but improved overall, not to mention that Matt Stafford returns to right the ship. The Lions’ organization should start to trend upward by competing for the 7th playoff spot in the coming years, and surprising the Packers in Detroit will be a step in the right direction for them.
One team that won’t surprise the Green Bay Packers in 2020 is the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers lost to the Vikings in Minneapolis three straight years, 2016-2018, but won a close one to end that streak last year. I believe the Packers will repeat in 2020.
Like the Lions, the Vikings had serious roster turnover this past offseason, losing 6 starters and plenty of depth players. The Vikings may have won the draft but with limited offseason workouts and practices, it’s unreasonable to expect a team that’s reliant on rookies to be competitive immediately.
The veteran Packers will be too much for the young Vikings Week 1 in Minneapolis, but the two teams will meet again in Green Bay Week 8, which will provide the Packers an opportunity to prove that they are still the best team in the NFC North. I believe they are the most talented and complete team in the division and will win this game
The Chicago Bears sit on the other end of the talent spectrum and are trending downward. The Packers should be able to handle the Bears both at home and away. The Bears will compete with their typical rivalry vigor but the Packers are the better team and the Bears still suck.
While the Vikings and Lions may be talented enough to compete for a playoff berth, the Packers’ 5-1 record in the division should be enough to win the NFC North. The other NFC division assigned to the Packers, the NFC South, will be another competitive division.
The NFC South
Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers have a new lease on life. The Bucs added Tom Brady to an already productive Bruce Arians’ offense. While the Panthers dropped Ron Rivera and Cam Newton, and are starting over with Matt Rhule, Joe Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, and a 2020 draft class full of defensive talent. Like the Vikings, both teams will need time to adjust.
The Packers face the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay fresh off a week five bye, which heavily benefits Green Bay. The Bucs won’t be ready for the Packers by then but they could make a late-season push that rivals the 2019 Tennessee Titans.
The Panthers likely don’t have the team to compete on the same level in year one under Rhule, but they are my wildcard team for 2020. If all the pieces fall into place for this team, the result of this matchup could go the other way.
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I’m not as concerned about the Atlanta Falcons. They may have ended the year on a high note, winning four of their last five games, but the front office didn’t do much to bring that momentum into 2020. Aside from Julio Jones and Grady Jarrett, this team doesn’t move the needle. The Packers will handle the Falcons on Monday night in Week 4.
The New Orleans Saints are in a different situation than their division rivals. This team has been competing at a high level for the past few years and has a great young core surrounding Drew Brees. The Packers travel to New Orleans, which is never an easy environment for away teams.
This game is being crowned early as a potential game of the year and it just might be, but I don’t think it will go the way the Packers want it to. The Saints will again be competing for a Super Bowl appearance. Both of these teams will likely win their respective divisions this year as they did in 2019.
A Pair of 2019 Division Champs
Outside of the NFC South, the Packers will face the other two 2019 NFC division winners, the Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers return a mostly intact roster that was one-quarter of football away from winning the Super Bowl. To make matters worse, the NFC Championship repeat will be played in San Francisco. This is probably another loss for the Packers.
The Eagles, however, barely won NFC East last year and skidded hard against Seattle in the wildcard. They also lost as much talent as they added. Unless Carson Wentz goes back to his potential MVP form, it’s hard to envision the Eagles beating the Packers in Green Bay.
The AFC South
Lastly, the Packers are slated to play the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars look like the potential worst team in the league and I expect the Packers to cruise by them. The Indianapolis Colts, however, will likely be an improved team this year, after a disappointing 7-9 record in 2019.
They added Phillip Rivers in free agency and traded for Deforest Buckner just before the draft. They could compete for the AFC South crown this year but the Packers still look like the better team. Green Bay should win this road game.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans made an impressive playoff run last season but fell short of a Super Bowl appearance. Retaining Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill were by far the biggest moves of their offseason. Losing Jurell Casey and Jack Conklin will leave this team with holes that didn’t exist in 2019.
The Titans won’t be as talented as last year, and it took massive amounts of overachieving for them to get to the same level in the playoffs as the Packers. Mike Vrabel is one of the up-and-comers in the coaching community which gives the Titans a shot in every game but a late-season matchup in Green Bay is a tough task for any team. This is a Packer W.
I can’t say the same about the Packers’ showdown with the Houston Texans. It’s easy to lose faith in Bill O’Brien after some questionable moves both on and off the field, but the fact remains, the Texans are one of the better teams in the AFC. Their on-field production may take a small step back in 2020 but this is more about when and where the Texans face the Green Bay Packers.
Not only is the showdown in Houston, but it falls in the middle of a tough stretch for the Packers. Following a tough road-game in Tampa Bay, the Packers may be looking past the Texans to the two matchups immediately following: the Vikings and 49ers. The Packers may be the better team but add in the details and this looks like a trap game for Green Bay.
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Expectations are higher than they were this time last year but, in all fairness, we didn’t have any expectations this time last year. Matt LaFleur’s second season in Green Bay should be another productive one.
A 12-4 record would put the Packers in the mix for a postseason bye, but seeing as how we haven’t even witnessed a practice yet, it’s tough to give a postseason projection. However, if the Green Bay Packers have another healthy season in 2020, there’s nothing keeping them from reaching the ultimate goal, a Super Bowl victory.