ESPN’s 2020 Projections Down on Green Bay Packers

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 19: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a fumble in the first half against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFC Championship game at Levi's Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 19: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a fumble in the first half against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFC Championship game at Levi's Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

According to ESPN’s FPI Simulation, the Green Bay Packers are a .500 team with less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.

If you haven’t been able to tell by listening to the national media, there aren’t many who are terribly excited about this Green Bay Packers team in 2020.

Between watching them get run off the field in Santa Clara the last time they played and what many would consider a lack-luster offseason where they didn’t address any of their perceived major needs, most are wondering if Green Bay has actually improved. In fact, it seems that a regression is all but expected.

However, it’s not just the NFL talking heads that feel this way, at least one computer system isn’t high on the 2020 Green Bay Packers either. ESPN just released the results from their Football Power Index (FPI) prediction model that ran 20,000 simulated seasons.

For those unfamiliar with FPI, it is a prediction model that using a number of different factors, determines the strengths and weaknesses of a football team, and creates a rating from that information based on expected points added (EPA). From there, simulations are ran with other aspects such as distance traveled, seasonal effects, home-field advantage, rest, and of course the opponent, all taken into consideration.

For a more in-depth look at FPI, follow the link here.

So with that out of the way, how did things turn out for the Packers over these 20,000 simulated seasons? Well, as I alluded to above, it was a bit disappointing.

In terms of their FPI, the Green Bay Packers ranked 15th with a 0.0 rating. For some context the Kansas City Chiefs were first with a rating of 7.4 and the Jacksonville Jaguars were last with a rating of -7.5.

Meanwhile as far as the NFC North goes, Minnesota had the highest rating at 0.9 which ranked 13th. Chicago is at -0.9 and that is good for 21st overall. And Detroit sits at -4.0 which ranks 28th.

The Packers are also given a projected win total of just 8.1 games, which would certainly be a disappointing outcome. And their odds of reaching the playoffs are only 43 percent according to the simulations.

Looking ahead to the 2020 season there certainly are question marks on this roster, however, that is the case for just about every NFL team. But what can’t be forgotten about is that there is also a lot of talent on this team as well.

If the Green Bay Packers are going to have another successful season, there are two things that have to take place. The first being that the offense takes a big step forward in Year 2 under Head Coach Matt LaFleur. And the second is that the development of their younger players is going to be crucial. Especially without any major offseason additions.

In my opinion the win total that ESPN is projecting along with Green Bay’s playoff percentage seems a bit low. It’s hard to envision any NFC North team running away with the division and it’s fair to say that Minnesota and Chicago aren’t any better than they were last year. Not to mention that Green Bay had very little roster turnover from a team that did win 13 games and did reach the NFC Championship Game.

Next. 3 Mistakes the Packers Made this Offseason. dark

Ultimately we will have to see how things play out this year but for the time being, add ESPN’s FPI projections to the list of those that are expecting the Green Bay Packers to underachieve in 2020.