If Packers Want Aaron Jones Back, An Extension Would Be Wise

If the Green Bay Packers want Aaron Jones back on a new deal, they can’t let him hit free agency and need to offer a contract extension.

Yesterday we saw the Carolina Panthers sign running back Christian McCaffrey to a four-year contract extension that will pay him an average annual value of $16 million per year and make him the highest-paid back in football on a per-year basis.

Now granted, McCaffrey is much more than just a running back for the Panthers, but that is still a hefty price to pay for the position, especially in today’s NFL. And when this news broke, it was a sobering reminder that this is the final year of Aaron Jones’ rookie deal with the Green Bay Packers and we do not know what the future is going to hold.

Over the course of Jones’ first two NFL seasons, it was fairly easy to see the potential that he had, the only thing that was missing were the opportunities. Well in 2019 under new head coach Matt LaFleur, he had plenty and he ended up putting together a breakout season.

Jones would eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the first time in his career with nearly 1,100 yards on the ground. On top of that, he’d haul in 49 receptions for 474 yards and during that month stretch where the Green Bay Packers were without Davante Adams, Jones was Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in the passing game. And oh yeah, he had 19 total touchdowns during the regular season as well.

Honestly, I don’t even want to imagine what this offense would have looked like last season without him.

But unfortunately for the Packers, paying Jones when he becomes a free agent in 2021 isn’t as easy of a decision as some may think it is.

For one, Jones isn’t the only high-profile free agent that the Packers have next offseason. Joining him is Kenny Clark, David Bakhtiari, Corey Linsley, along with Kevin King. And when it comes to priority, it’s easy to argue that Jones is fourth on that list just ahead of King.

Not to mention that as is the case every offseason, there will be new needs to address with outside free agent signings as well. Which means more cap space being used up.

However, the biggest hurdle that Jones is facing is that the running back position has been devalued in recent years. NFL teams know that they can find a contributor and an impact player on Day 3 of the draft. I mean, Jones is the prime example of that as a former fifth-round selection.

Teams just don’t have to pay running backs top-dollar in order to be successful. In fact, of the current seven highest-paid backs in the game, six of them didn’t even make the playoffs in 2019.

Yet even so, if Jones can put together a similar performance in 2020 as he did this past season, if he hits the open market as a free agent, he is going to come away with a big contract. Now, it won’t be as much as McCaffrey’s but Spotrac is projecting an average annual value for him of $14.9 million. And while that does seem a little high to me, it’s in the ballpark and you get the idea.

From the Green Bay Packers’ perspective, I just can’t envision a realistic scenario where they are going to pay Jones that much per year or even $11 million per year. So if they do really want him back for the foreseeable future, it would be in their best interest to offer him a contract extension before the 2020 season is over.

The good news for Packer fans is that at the combine, it was reported by Rob Demovsky of ESPN that the Packers and Jones’ representatives were in talks about an extension. Now how serious those discussions were, we don’t know. And we also don’t know if they are still ongoing.

But if that is the case, what would it take for Jones to agree to an extension?

Well, the Los Angeles Chargers and Austin Ekeler may have given us the blueprint.

Both players entered the NFL in the same year so the comparison is fairly easy. Ekeler has totaled 3,047 yards in 46 career games, with more yards coming through the air than what Jones has, and he has also tallied 22 touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Jones has appeared in only 40 games but has 2,962 total yards with 32 touchdowns. And both players are coming off of career years.

Ultimately, Ekeler agreed to a four-year extension worth $24.5 million with $15 million guaranteed. His average annual value of $6.125 million is a number that would certainly be much easier for the Green Bay Packers to swallow if Jones would agree to a similar figure.

Heck, even if Jones is looking for a $30 million contract over the same four-year period with an average annual value of over $7 million, the Packers shouldn’t have an issue signing him to that amount. Especially when they take into account what he could earn in free agency.

Aaron Jones is certainly an important part of this offense and truthfully, he is what made them go in 2019. However, paying a running back isn’t a prerequisite for winning. So if the Green Bay Packers truly want him a part of this team for the next handful of seasons, they can’t let him hit free agency where he will likely end up out of their price range.