Milwaukee Brewers: Keon Broxton’s Best Days May Be Behind Him

I’m a fan of Keon Broxton. He’s been a nice story and seems like an authentically good guy. Unfortunately, his value to the Milwaukee Brewers is dropping quickly.

Milwaukee Brewers‘ general manager David Stearns has already won the trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates that brought in Keon Broxton. Thus, no matter what happens next, there should be no complaints from the fans.

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired Broxton and minor league pitcher Trey Supak in exchange for 1B/3B Jason Rogers. The 29-year-old Rogers went 1-for-25 in 2016 and has spent all of 2017 in Triple-A. Broxton has easily outclassed Rogers, and Supak has a decent ceiling in the future.

So with that out of the way, let’s discuss what Broxton has been and what he might become. From my view, he has already reached his peak, and it appears the Brewers feel the same way.

On Thursday afternoon, Broxton whiffed on 3 straight below-average fastballs (91-92 MPH). Still, Broxton was late on all of them. He looked lost, confused and sort of sad.

With guys like Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips waiting in the wings – and playing well – something could be happening soon.

That was a perfect microcosm of what Broxton has been as of late. He hasn’t truly taken advantage of his opportunities. Despite regular starts, nothing is clicking. Since May 15, Broxton has .279 OBP with a .364 slugging percentage.

His .642 OPS over that time is concerning, but even more so when paired with the high strikeout rate. Broxton has 26 punch outs in those 15 games with at least one whiff in 14 of those contests. Nine of those times he has multiple strikeouts as well.

The strikeouts alone don’t necessarily spell doom, but his at-bats have been poor overall. Way behind fastballs, taking good pitches to hit and waving helplessly at most offspeed pitches he sees.

And it appears the Milwaukee Brewers had already determined that any success Broxton was finding would be temporary. Even when Broxton got hot and Jonathan Villar continued to struggle, Craig Counsell either stuck with Villar or looked elsewhere for help.

Additionally, with Braun, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw all missing games, Broxton still rarely has seen the upper half of the lineup. Of his 44 starts, 27 of them have come batting in the 7th hole.

That doesn’t say much for how the Brewers feel about him, even though he has performed well in that spot (.872 OPS). Couple his location in the order with his seemingly regular slumps, and you have signs of a short honeymoon between player and team.

With guys like Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips waiting in the wings – and playing well – something could be happening soon. Both players are also seen as quality center fielders, so they can bring immediate value on that side of the ball, too.

There’s no doubt that the current center fielder has exciting physical tools. The 27-year-old has also had some terrific stretches over the last two seasons. Prior to breaking his wrist last September, Broxton looked like a changed man over his final 46 games.

From July 26-September 16, Broxton owned a .937 OPS with 8 home runs and 20 runs scored. The most encouraging sign may have been the 25 walks he drew, helping him to post a .399 OBP over that span.

That fantastic run, however, was preceded by an equally amazing period where he looked like one of the worst players on the planet. Broxton opened the 2016 season 0-for-18 with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks. He was overmatched and frustrated.

Even after some time in the minors, his overall numbers were ugly through July 1. In 29 games, Broxton hit .125 with a .188 slugging percentage and a .441 OPS.

This season also started off on a cold note. He went 5-for-42 to open 2017 with 21 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances. His OBP was below .200 while his OPS sat at .410 to start. Call him streaky or inconsistent, but there appears to be a pattern here that leans more toward the negative.

At some point in the near future, the Milwaukee Brewers may make the decision that Broxton’s time as a regular is up. If they choose to call up Phillips or Brinson, they want them playing every day and gaining valuable experience.

With Braun out, Milwaukee is really only carrying two outfielders. Hernan Perez manages fine out there and Nick Franklin is a serviceable part-time option. However, you can sense some changes afoot.

Whether or not the Brewers stay around .500 won’t matter in this case. Brinson and Phillips both can produce while learning to play at the MLB level. That would pay dividends in the future – and perhaps the present.

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Broxton’s ceiling will never be as high as those two. He is likely viewed more as a quality 4th outfielder at this point. Being in his late 20’s with little experience is a factor there as well. Still, he’s not a bad option as a reserve for a building franchise or a contending one.

Sure, he could also be a trade piece for someone. However, it’s unlikely Broxton would draw too much on his own, as most teams would want more proof that he’s “for real.”

Regardless, the writing is on the wall when it comes to Broxton’s role with this team. A few more weeks of mediocre at-bats might be enough for Stearns and Co. to see what the future holds with a small youth movement in 2017.

Next: Ryan Braun is Part of the Rebuild

As the Milwaukee Brewers continue to evaluate the status of the franchise, get used to seeing players judged quickly and harshly. The ultimate goal is to field the best group of guys for the longest period of time. Sometimes the “OK” player we know must give way to potential.