Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Knebel Among MLB’s Elite Relievers
By Tim Muma
The value of a relief pitcher has always been difficult to quantify. For the Milwaukee Brewers’ latest closer, the eye test and the numbers are speaking volumes.
Over the years, the Milwaukee Brewers have been able to acquire and harvest a wide range of successful closers. Many lasted only two or three seasons before blowing up or getting shipped out.
The 2017 Brewers are already on their second “game-ender” in Corey Knebel. It makes sense, because the 25-year-old has been the Crew’s most dominant and reliable relief arm through a quarter of the season. He has allowed just 1 run in 21 innings this season.
Whether you base your assessment of Knebel on what you see or the stats you read, it’s clear he has “it.” While it’s extremely early in the season – especially for gauging a reliever’s impact – Knebel has been a force.
Using an electric two-pitch repertoire, Knebel is actually performing at an elite level, alongside MLB’s best. Some people saw this coming.
His fastball has terrific late life that seemingly skips past many hitters’ bats. While the heater sits at 97 MPH on a consistent basis, it looks and feels like 100+ with the extra “giddy-up” as it reaches the plate.
Watch his strikeouts on Wednesday against San Diego Padres to pick up his second save. They’re taking healthy cuts as they anticipate the fastball. It’s right there, then suddenly, it’s in Jett Bandy’s mitt.
That is top-level zip. When Knebel locates it well – as he mostly did Wednesday – it’s nearly unhittable.
But the fastball alone won’t get it done. He’s able to complement the high cheese with a big, often sharp knuckle curve. The beauty – besides the movement – lies in the the path of his knuckle curve. It is perfectly suited for his elevated fastball.
Knebel’s “Uncle Charlie” has an exaggerated arc that reaches the top of the strike zone before diving down and away from a righty. Thus, the height placement is key to utilizing both of his pitches effectively and setting up hitters.
With the curve in the back of a hitter’s mind – and recognizing its path from the top of the zone – the high heat becomes more potent. As the heater comes out of Knebel’s hand at the same level the curveball reaches (top of the zone), the hitter experiences a slight hesitation in reading the pitch.
It throws off their timing and give the fastball the appearance of rising over their bat. When Knebel and his catchers are in sync, the opposition is in real trouble.
Most statistics back up the right-hander’s early success as well. The biggest question related to the Milwaukee Brewers’ closer is, what stats do you look at first?
His fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement) sits at 1.1 through Wednesday night. That is good for 3rd among all MLB relief pitchers. Craig Kimbrel of the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ Kenley Jansen – a pair of lights-out closers – are the only guys ahead of him.
Part of that equation is Knebel’s ability to get strikeouts. He ranks 8th in strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) among relievers. Knebel owns a 15.0 K/9 rate. Jansen, the leader, is at 17.2 K/9, but in almost 7 fewer innings.
Speaking of strikeouts, Knebel added to his franchise-record streak on Wednesday. He now has at least one punch out in 23 consecutive appearances.
What else can you look at? Hitters make contact on just 72.7% of their swings at pitches in the zone against Knebel. That’s good for the 9th-lowest mark in baseball. Opponents have a .155 average and minuscule .183 slugging percentage on the year.
Knebel has yet to allow a home run, has a 0.86 ERA (8th in MLB), and owns a ridiculous 523 ERA+ according to Baseball-Reference.com. That number is based on 100 being average (higher is better) with the formula including adjustments for ballpark factors. He is 6th in that category.
Just about every stat and appearance says Knebel has unlimited potential in 2017 and beyond. His one issue, too many walks, is manageable. It’s certainly something he needs to improve upon, but he typically doesn’t get wild to the point of getting blown up.
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In fact, Knebel has had 18 appearances when he tossed at least 1 full inning. Of those 18 times, he had zero walks in 10 games. Three times he has had a 3-game streak without issuing a walk. Additionally, 6 of his 10 free passes this season have come on a full count.
Those numbers show promise and not a concerning pattern. He will hit a few bumps, but it should be a fun ride.
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If the Milwaukee Brewers continue to play above expectations, Knebel should be a staple with this club. He is under team control through the 2021 season at bargain price – for now. However, should Milwaukee struggle, he becomes another intriguing trade chip to dangle for prospects. Let’s hope for the former, not the latter.