Milwaukee Brewers: Jimmy Nelson Must Abandon This One Pitch

Rarely does one problem cause a pitcher to fail to reach expectations. In the case of the Milwaukee Brewers’ Jimmy Nelson, a turnaround may start with one type of pitch.

While no one was thinking Nelson would ever turn into a staff ace, it was more than reasonable to believe that he could be a solid number three starter for the Milwaukee Brewers.

After an ugly 2016 campaign and a rough start to the new year (5.34 ERA, 1.535 WHIP), Nelson is at a crossroads. Nelson’s first two starts were great, combining for 13 strikeouts (2 walks) over 13 innings while allowing only a pair of runs. It’s been disaster since then.

Here is a snapshot of Nelson’s last three starts:

7 earned runs, 9 hits, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk (5.1 innings)
3 earned runs, 5 hits, 5 strikeouts, 6 walks (5.1 innings)
5 earned runs, 11 hits, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk (5 innings)

All told, he racked up an 8.62 ERA with just 10 strikeouts in 15.2 frames in that span. Opponents posted a 1.037 OPS in those three contests as well. This quick start and quicker fade is similar to 2016 for Nelson.

So what’s been the problem? Last year, I wondered if he simply needed to use his knuckle-curve more often. Looking again at Nelson’s performance over the past few years, it’s not about throwing one type of pitch more often, but using one less – maybe never.

Nelson needs to stop throwing his sinker. At worst, he needs to use it on an extremely limited basis. The potential problem with this change in strategy is that he has thrown that pitch more often than any other in his career.

If the Milwaukee Brewers are serious about helping Nelson figure things out, however, they need to show him the statistics hitters rack up against his favorite pitch – the sinker.

In Nelson’s career, opponents have an .844 OPS when he throws the sinker (3,125 pitches).
- That’s the highest OPS for any of his pitches except the changeup, which he has only thrown 104 times.
Opponents also have a .313 batting average against the sinker.
- Slider = .166
- Fastball = .238
- Knuckle-curve = .262

Most of Nelson’s issues with his sinker is that he simply has no command over it. He consistently lets it leak over the heart of the plate where, at about 93-94 MPH, it’s waiting to be crushed.

That is exactly what happened on Saturday night when Matt Kemp blasted a 2-run home run to right-center. The pitch was supposed to dive down and in under Kemp’s hands. Instead, it simply floated into the happy zone as Kemp effortlessly deposited it into the Atlanta Braves‘ bullpen. You can see the pitch on Kemp’s first of three long balls below.

This has been a continuous problem for Nelson in his career. It’s also contributing to his consistent issue with walks the last few seasons. Since 2015, he has issued 3.76 walks per 9 innings. That is the 7th-worst mark in baseball over that span among starters.

Ironically, the sinker is the pitch Nelson has thrown in the strike zone most often throughout his career. However, that doesn’t always tell the whole story for the Milwaukee Brewers’ hurler.

Batters only miss his sinker 5% of the time when they swing at it – the lowest of all Nelson’s pitches. So when he puts it in the strike zone, it’s going to get hit – often extremely hard. Hitters have a 25.4% line drive percentage on his sinker.

Meanwhile, even when Nelson throws the sinker out of the zone, opponents still hit it. They’re making contact on 80.8% of swings sinkers that would be balls. Again, the best contact rate of all of his pitches.

Thus, he’s fooling no one, gets less than ideal movement, and fails to keep the ball far enough away from hitters. There has been some progress in the early stages of 2017, but that’s more a product of small sample sizes.

However, Nelson has actually thrown his four-seam fastball more often than his sinker in his first five starts. Perhaps this is a sign of a recognized problem and better things to come. At the same time, the results have still been shoddy as his fastball hasn’t been anything to write home about.