Milwaukee Brewers: Strikeouts a Concern for a Surprising Reason

Ten Milwaukee Brewers’ hitters have at least 3 punch outs in their first 4 games, as the team leads MLB in strikeouts (45) and strikeout percentage (31.7%) during their 1-3 start to the season.

Strikeouts aren’t inherently worse than ground outs or fly outs. The biggest issues are when they happen and how often they occur, which have both been problems for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Their Opening Day loss was a prime example as the Brewers had the tying and go-ahead runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. The next three hitters all went down on strikes, killing the rally and leading to defeat.

And while we tend to remember the ugly strikeouts when a player flails at a horrible pitch, it’s how the Brewers are getting there that represents the real problem. It’s only 4 games, but Milwaukee hitters are not swinging the bat enough – especially at pitches within the strike zone. There’s a fine line between patience and passiveness, and the Brewers need to figure it out.

Milwaukee ranks 23rd in MLB when it comes to swinging at strikes (Z-swing%) according to FanGraphs. They’re taking hacks at just 65.1% of pitches in the zone. We typically think of Brewers’ hitters being overly aggressive, but it’s not really the case recently. However, this early-season propensity to take strikes is putting hitters behind in the count.

In giving the edge to the pitcher so many times, the Brewers are then expanding their zones later in at-bats and chasing balls out of the zone.

For the most part, Milwaukee was effectively patient last season, at least when it came to walks. The Brewers were 3rd in MLB with 599 free passes, the 6th-most ever for the franchise. Their philosophy also led to the most strikeouts in a season in MLB history. All the strikeouts have remained in 2017 (31.7 K%), but the walks haven’t been as high yet. Milwaukee is 14th in walk percentage (BB%) at 9.9% – though the season is young.

While there is value in seeing more pitches, working the count and increasing the opportunity to walk, there’s also a need to hammer pitches over the plate. This club should especially want to swing the sticks. When putting the ball in play in 2017, Milwaukee is 3rd in hard hit ball percentage (42%). They also have the best line drive percentage (LD%) in baseball at an even 30%.

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Line drives create far more runs per out than fly balls and ground balls. And hard hit balls don’t always land safely (see Nolan Arenado robbing Ryan Braun twice), but they often go for hits more often. These two stats are great indicators that the Brewers are scalding the ball right now.

That’s why, despite all of the strikeouts, Milwaukee has scored 5 or more runs in 3 of those contests. Of course, you can’t hit hard line drives if you’re not swinging the lumber.

Although I’m a fan of a patient approach, it all depends on the players and the results. It will be interesting to see what changes – if any – the club will make in their approach at the dish.

If a player is ripping shots all over the field, I’d encourage more swings – particularly at pitches in the zone. It’s a cat and mouse game then with the pitcher as he tries to figure out if you’ll be ambushing that get-me-over toss or simply taking it for an easy strike.

Next: Knee Jerk Reactions from Brewers' Opening Day Loss

With the Chicago Cubs in town this weekend, it will be fascinating to watch their hitters. Chicago led MLB in walks in 2016, but ranked 9th in whiffs. Their offense finished 3rd in runs scored last season while sitting in the middle of the pack in swinging at strikes. So far this year, the Cubs have swung at the most strikes. Maybe the Milwaukee Brewers can learn a few things from the Cubs’ success as they go head to head for the first time this season.