Milwaukee Brewers 2017 New Year’s Resolutions
By Tim Muma
The Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff gave opposing hitters the edge in too many at-bats by nibbling and falling behind early in counts.
Getting to a 1-2 count is the ideal scenario for hurlers – even more important than a first-pitch strike. Of course, throwing strike one makes it more likely you reach 1-2 in an at-bat.
In both cases, the Brewers were among the worst in gaining these early advantages.
Milwaukee pitchers had the 4th-fewest plate appearances reach an 0-1 count. Not surprisingly, it led to the 6th-fewest 1-2 counts as well.
Falling behind 1-0 and 2-1 is detrimental to a pitcher’s success, more damaging than watching a hitter ambush the first toss of a plate appearance. Here’s why.
Once a count reaches 0-1, hitters in 2016 owned a .223 average, .266 OBP and a .618 OPS. When a count reaches 1-2, the results were .178 average, .229 OBP and a .508 OPS.
Milwaukee’s 4.08 ERA (12th in MLB) would certainly get a boost if the Brewers cut down on early pitches out of the zone.
On the flip side, after a 1-0 count the batters hit .271 with a .382 OBP and an .839 OPS. When hitters go on the attack on a 2-1 pitch, it’s devastating: .341 average, .342 OBP and .921 OPS.
So why are Brewers’ pitchers falling behind?
Well, it may be one of two things. Either they have trouble commanding their pitches or they’re afraid to throw strikes early in the count.
The former may be more likely, and only through continued fine tuning of their skills might that be corrected. However, there could be a mental component to the “fear” of attacking hitters.
Brewers’ pitchers had all sorts of trouble getting hitters to swing and miss. They were dead last in swinging strike percentage at just 8.9 percent. For reference, the best 10 teams in this category ranged from 10.4 percent to 11.5 percent.
This could be a “chicken or the egg” discussion. Were the Brewers failing to miss bats because they’d be in hitters’ counts too often or did the frequency of batted balls make them timid within the strike zone?
Regardless, Milwaukee’s 4.08 ERA (12th in MLB) would certainly get a boost if the Brewers cut down on early pitches out of the zone. This could also help with the team’s 3.34 walks per nine innings (8th-highest) which added too many base runners throughout the season.