Why Packers-Seahawks Will Be a Blowout on Sunday Night Football
With how many fighting analogies are used in describing a game of football, it's only fitting that the cliche "styles make fights" holds up on the football field too. And if you've watched football for long, you've seen countless examples of what I mean.
You're super excited for a game. Two teams that should be evenly matched are facing off in primetime, and you've been looking forward to it all day. And then before you've even finished your first drink, it's clear that the game is a runaway. The only solace you get is that at least you can get a good sleep since you don't need to stay up for the fourth quarter.
And that's what we're in for on Sunday night. Everyone except Green Bay Packers fans is going to be sorely disappointed when the Packers-Seahawks clash turns into a thrashing. The Packers are only 2.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, but I'm here to tell you why this game won't be nearly that close.
Packers vs. Seahawks Prediction: Why Green Bay Runs Away With it Easily
To start, we have two teams on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of offensive playcalling. Green Bay is the third most run-heavy team in the NFL (50.8% run play rate), while Seattle is the sixth most pass-heavy (37.4% run play rate). So, it probably won't surprise you when I say that I expect a large part of Seattle's success (or lack thereof) to come from how Geno Smith performs. But Green Bay's success will be determined through the air too.
A big part of what enables Josh Jacobs to do so much damage on the ground is Jordan Love and the passing game opening things up. The idea that you run the ball to open up the passing game is severely outdated.
Consider Jordan Love's four most efficient games of the season: 13.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) @ Chicago, 11.3 @ Detroit, 11.2 vs. Miami, and 9.2 vs. Arizona. That group includes Jacobs' least-efficient game (2.3 yards per carry vs. Miami) and his third, fourth, and seventh least-efficient games. That sample also includes two of the Packers' four biggest margins of victory for the season.
Let's add the fact that arguably Jacobs' worst game of the season was in Week 3, when he rushed for 43 yards on 14 carries against the Tennessee Titans. The Packers won that game by 16.
So if the Packers' offense hopes to deliver a blowout-worthy score, it's going to be driven by Jordan Love's success. Jacobs will just put the nail in the coffin.
So what do Love's big games have in common? Those top two efficiency games (@ Chicago and @ Detroit) also happened to be the only two games this season in which his average time to throw (per PFF) was at least 3 seconds. His least efficient game in terms of AY/A? Against the Houston Texans in week 7 — which was also his lowest average time to throw of the season.
Love is a completely different quarterback when he's pressured compared to when he's kept clean.
Why Love is Staying Clean on Sunday
And what do the Seattle Seahawks struggle to do? Get after the quarterback. They rank 21st in PFF's pass-rush grade this season. Their most productive pass rusher is Leonard Williams.
Williams lines up all over the D-line. PFF has him playing no more than 25.1% of his D-line snaps at any one position. Now consider the Packers' offensive line — Elgton Jenkins, Zach Tom, and Rasheed Walker are all plus blockers in pass protection, with PFF grading each out above 80 in that area. So almost regardless of where Williams lines up, the Packers will have a strong pass protector ready to get involved.
What About Geno Smith?
So we've established that the Green Bay offense will be humming. What about Seattle?
The same betting markets that are only favoring Green Bay by 2.5 are also giving Geno Smith an over/under line of 252.5 passing yards. That sits below his season average of 267.2 per game. He's also heavily favored to throw for one touchdown or fewer (-146, compared to +112 for 2 or more).
So we've got one of the NFL's most pass-happy teams with their quarterback expected to have a below-average performance. And if the Packers get out to a big lead, Seattle could be forced to abandon the run altogether.
If you're a Packers fan, this game is going to be a ton of fun whether you bet on it or not. A blowout, even late at night in primetime, against a potential playoff team will always feel good. But if you're not excited about the idea of sitting through a blowout, at least betting that 2.5-point spread would make it an easier pill to swallow when Sunday Night Football isn't competitive.
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