The Milwaukee Bucks finally pivoted and embraced the rebuild this summer. For the first time in a while, the Bucks will not begin the season with deep postseason aspirations. Instead, they will try to be as competitive as possible. Since they don't control their own first-round pick in 2027, they also have no incentive to lose. Plus, with the new lottery rules in the NBA, there isn't much of a reason to tank, anyway.
But how good can the Bucks realistically be next season as currently constructed?
We can expect a very competitive league next season thanks to the new lottery rules. The lottery teams will try harder than they have in previous years. As a result, we might not see any completely hopeless teams. This will especially be the case in the Eastern Conference. In fact, for the first time in a very long time, the East may be stronger than the West.
This will pose a tough challenge for the Bucks. Let's take a look at the playoff picture first.
Can the Bucks avoid being at the bottom of the East?
New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland, Indiana, and Miami are all hoping to be title contenders next season. That's eight teams that would be extremely disappointed if they miss the playoffs. Add the Hawks and the Magic, and you have ten very good teams battling it out for a playoff spot. At least two of these teams will miss the playoffs.
In all likelihood, one of these teams will suffer an unfortunate injury or two, pushing them down in the pecking order. Outside of that, the Bucks have almost no shot at finishing above these teams.
In the next tier of teams, there are Charlotte and Washington.
The Hornets traded away LaMelo Ball, but they still have a deep and talented team. They have a ton of young players who can take a step forward next season. Even though their point guard and center rotations are less than ideal, they should be more competitive than the Bucks.
The Wizards are also desperate to make the postseason after trading for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. When healthy, they have the required talent, but it's difficult to trust that when it comes to Trae and AD. Plus, the Wizards still have a ton of young, unproven players, and it's not clear how they will all mesh with the veteran past-their-prime stars.
The last tier of teams is the Bucks, Bulls, and the Nets. Milwaukee can feel good about its chances of finishing above those two.
If the Bucks keep this core, they have so much more depth than either of those teams. Their forward rotation leaves plenty to be desired, but they have a deep, talented backcourt and a solid center pairing of Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware. They also have a head coach in Taylor Jenkins, who has proven to get the most out of limited groups during his time in Memphis.
It wouldn't be shocking to see the Bucks finish above the Wizards. Washington has a lot of implosion potential and may have the least proven head coach in the entire league.
The Bucks will almost certainly finish in the 12-15 range in the Eastern Conference. Their exact spot will depend on injuries elsewhere in the conference and if and when the Bucks decide to sell off their veterans. As they are currently constructed, the Bucks should have enough talent and depth to not be at the bottom, so I will predict a 13th-place finish.
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