Several conflicting truths are lingering around Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins and his peculiar start to the 2026-27 season:
1. He's having a rough time shooting the ball, connecting on just 36% of his field goal attempts and 29% of his threes in the first eight games of the season.
2. Head coach Taylor Jenkins is justified in experimenting with Brayden Burries as Milwaukee's starting point guard amidst Rollins' struggles over the last few games.
3. Ryan Rollins, even in his shooting slump, might still be the most impactful player on this team.
How do we even begin to make sense of it all?
The eye test and the advanced metrics are telling two parts of a whole story that we're going to try sorting through here today. Based on the former, Rollins hasn't looked nearly as commanding or consistent as he did in his first year as a full-time starter, when he was robbed of the Most Improved Player Award, averaging 17.3 points, 5.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game.
His per-game numbers are down in every one of those categories except rebounding, which is up 0.2 boards per game. But he's not beating defenders off the dribble to the same extent; he's not leaping into passing lanes as easily, and his shot simply isn't falling the way we'd expect. Over time, we'd expect that to balance out — even if he's not back to 47.2 FG/40.6 3P/79.6% FT splits this year.
Yet through it all, there's a statistical argument to be made that Rollins has been the most important and influential player on the Bucks roster this season.
Ryan Rollins' On/Off Differential shows that he's one of the biggest difference-makers for the Milwaukee Bucks so far this year.
Through eight games this season, Ryan Rollins' On/Off Differential per 100 Possessions is +27.2, which is one of the highest marks in the entire NBA this season. In layman's terms, that's a statistic that averages out how much better your team performs with you on the floor versus off it. For reference, of the eight Bucks players who've played 100+ minutes this season, the next highest differential belongs to Kyle Kuzma at +1.7 Points Per 100 Possessions.
Statistically speaking, Rollins has been the most important Bucks player this season. If we set the numbers aside, we know the most important players thus far have probably been Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but Rollins could easily slot into that No. 3 spot.
Rollins' role has changed quite a bit. Last year, under Doc Rivers, he was tasked with freelancing and creating advantages purely off instinct and talent. Now, he's operating within a system and learning how to play more of a true point guard role. That learning curve shouldn't go understated, as Rollins needs to adapt to an entirely different style of play than the one that led him to a career year.
So don't let the shooting splits or his shift to the bench deceive you — Ryan Rollins is still core to what this team hopes to achieve. He's just finding his footing and settling into a new role than what he was used to, and even then, he's still making a huge impact for Milwaukee.
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