Analyst Has Delusional JJ McCarthy-Jordan Love Take After Just One Preseason Game

Green Bay Packers fans haven't exactly been kind to Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy as embarrassing reports around his play have surfaced throughout the minicamp and training camp. But he did, admittedly, answer some of those concerns with an impressive preseason debut. McCarthy went 17-of-19 for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 pick in his first live game action in the pros.

But that's also 19 passes against backup defenders. It was impressive, absolutely. He couldn't control what quality of defense he faced — and he did the most he could with the opportunity he had. But it was 19 passes against backup defenders.

As is tradition, however, the NFL world is thirsty for excitement after a long offseason. And so the McCarthy hype is skyrocketing now.

College football/NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom has taken that to an unbelievable level after that one preseason performance.

Nystrom already thinks McCarthy on his current contract is more valuable than Jordan Love on the contract he is on after signing the extension.

This isn't to single him out, either. The take is already a popular one with Vikings fans, who don't seem ready to face the reality that they may be in for a rebuild with a team that is tied for the sixth-worst odds to make the playoffs in 2024 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is a wild take from a couple angles, so let's walk through them.

First, there's the "is J.J. McCarthy even very good?" angle. The take immediately conjures up memories of the "Mitch Trubisky's contract makes him the most valuable quarterback in the NFC North" take from 2019.

McCarthy was the fifth quarterback off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. Yes, it was a loaded class at the position. Yes, some analysts had him as high as No. 3. But with how hit-or-miss rookies can be, most in the NFL world are careful not to crown even their favorite prospects after one strong preseason performance.

It's not surprising though. When people see a good college player and like them as a draft pick, it's easy to overrate their chances of excelling as a pro. Even without the added bias of it being your favorite team, overrating rookies is an August tradition in the NFL world.

Let's see a good season out of McCarthy (or maybe even a single good regular season game?) before taking any victory laps about how he's already hit as a great draft pick.

The second part is the contract situation. The NFL salary cap is one of the most punishing in sports, and having star players on rookie contracts is one of the best ways to be able to have a roster loaded with talent.

But is that true at quarterback? Patrick Mahomes doesn't think so. Matthew Stafford doesn't think so. Tom Brady doesn't think so. Nick Foles wasn't on a rookie deal but it was a small contract, so even if we grant that one as a point in favor of "rookie deal QB", we have one Super Bowl winner in the last decade.

The Vikings roster isn't nearly talented enough to be in a place where they just need decent quarterback play to elevate them into being true contenders. And by the time they have rebuilt the roster, or by the time McCarthy develops into a star quarterback (if he ever does) they'll maybe have a season or two of McCarthy's rookie deal left.

So if McCarthy does become a great quarterback, they have maybe a one or two-year window where that contract really matters (if he's willing to play on his fifth-year option at that point, which is far from a guarantee if he does become a star). Is that really significantly better than having a great quarterback and paying him like he's great?

Love is No. 5 in the odds to win NFL MVP this season, while McCarthy doesn't even crack the top five to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

This should not even be a conversation, and it's about time the regular season gets here so the NFL results can start giving us actual answers to all of this speculation.

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