The Green Bay Packers made a surprising move on Thursday afternoon, picking up the fifth-year option on edge rusher Lukas Van Ness according to Matt Schneidman of The Athletic. The decision to pick up the option is a polarizing move among Packers fans who have watched Van Ness battle injuries and become more of a project than contributor in his first three seasons in Green Bay.
With contract extensions due for Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft as they head into contract years, picking up Van Ness’s option, which is valued at $14.5 million according to Packers cap analyst Ken Ingalls, seems like an unnecessary move. But it could also pay big dividends that won’t hinder their attempt to keep both playmakers, but also potentially give the Packers a bargain heading into the 2027 season.
It’s on Lukas Van Ness to Make Packers’ Fifth-Year Option Decision Make Sense
Van Ness’s production suggests the Packers should have declined the option and let him go into a contract year. The 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Van Ness’s sack total has declined in each of his first three seasons dropping from 4.0 in 2023 to just 1.5 sacks last season. Most of his traditional stats also took a tumble during that time and last year felt like rock bottom as he managed 19 total tackles and three tackles for loss while missing eight games due to a foot injury.
While that seems rough, Pro Football Focus had a different opinion of Van Ness when he was on the field. The Iowa product was the second-highest graded edge defender on the Packers last season with a 75.7 overall grade. He also was a reliable tackler with a 5.3% missed tackle rate and effective against the ground game with 15 run stops.
Of course, the biggest barometer of Van Ness’s success is his pass-rushing ability. His 27 pressures won’t look impressive – even if you project them to be 51 over a full 17-game season. But his pass-rush win rate was also at 16.2% which put him 19th among qualifiers.
If Van Ness stays healthy as he did when he played in 17 games in each of his first two seasons, that’s a solid player and if he continues to improve, it could be a bargain when they go to the negotiating table next season.
Spotrac currently projects Van Ness’s market value at $8.7 million and that makes the $14.5 million option for 2027 look like an overpay. But the latter number also ranks 30th among edge rushers for the 2026 season. That number could fall even further as more star pass-rushers get paid, giving the Packers ample value if Van Ness plays to his abilities and avoid taking a bigger risk at a position that often overpays during free agency.
It also doesn’t hurt their chances of putting money into contracts for Kraft and Watson with $42.8 million in cap space for next season per Over The Cap. It also gives Green Bay a fair starting point in contract negotiations and buys time as opposed to just letting Van Ness play out the season, leaving the ball in their court.
If it doesn’t work out, the Packers still won’t be hamstrung. Like free agents, teams are always looking to “fix” pass rushers that don’t work out in other areas and his salary is cheap enough where someone could take a flier and offer a draft pick to turn him around.
In the end, it will be on Van Ness to reward the Packers’ front office for making a risky move. But if he continues his development and stays on the field, Green Bay could wind up being very happy with their decision.
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