For one reason or another, it appears the Detroit Tigers' asking price for star pitcher Tarik Skubal was far higher for the Milwaukee Brewers than the Los Angeles Dodgers. MLB fans are up in arms on both sides of the argument, with some claiming the Dodgers are ruining the sport and the Tigers are complicit for sending him to L.A., while others blame the Brewers for not including the apparent lynchpin of their trade conversation in starting pitcher Logan Henderson.
Let's back up for a moment. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy spoke with someone in the know, who told him the equivalent of the trade package that Milwaukee would've had to give up for Skubal would've been Logan Henderson, Luis Peña, and one of Bishop Letson or Josh Knoth. @BaseballValues followed up with a comparison between that package and the one the Dodgers gave up for Skubal, showing that the asking price for the Brewers was far greater than that of the Dodgers, per their model.
Even without that model telling us, there was one factor that made it obvious the Brewers shouldn't take that deal: the inclusion of right-handed starter Logan Henderson, whose underlying metrics aren't too far off from Tarik Skubal despite being five years younger and 14 games into his major league career.
Giving up Logan Henderson would negate the purpose of the Milwaukee Brewers going all-in for Tarik Skubal.
The whole point of the Brewers targeting Skubal was to bring in a veteran starter to set the tone for what's already the most dynamic young pitching rotation in professional baseball — not to replace it. And for what it's worth, by the Baseball Values model and the suggestion of many well-informed baseball fans and analysts, Henderson alone is a better return for Skubal than the three prospects that Detroit got back for their ace pitcher.
This isn't to say that Henderson is on Skubal's level, but he's certainly one of the most impressive young talents in the sport for a fraction of the price. Per Baseball Savant, Henderson is leading Skubal in a handful of vital categories this season, including Expected ERA, Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Strikeout Rate, and Expected Batting Average.
Having a talent like Henderson in the price range the Brewers expect to pay is exactly what would've allowed them to acquire and potentially re-sign a player expecting a massive payday this summer like Skubal. Otherwise, the Brewers' cap sheet would quickly grow out of control, forcing them to make cost-cutting moves throughout the roster and, effectively, eroding what they've built.
So while it hurts to see Skubal go to the Dodgers, the Brewers were right to hold off if the cost was as high as it appeared to be. Now, it's time for them to pivot and keep building on the core culture and team-building philosophies that put them in a position to go toe-to-toe with Los Angeles in the first place.
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