We are roughly a quarter of the way through the Green Bay Packers 2023 season. Here is the good, the bad, and the ugly from the first four games.
I’m not sure we expected the Packers to be on this massive of a roller coaster ride, with high highs and low lows, but to a degree, the season up to this point has gone as expected. There is a lot to like about this group, and we’ve seen flashes across just about every position group. However, with a first-time starting quarterback and a young team in general, consistency has alluded the Packers.
In an effort to hit on all the key takeaways from Green Bay’s first four games, here is what has gone well for them and where they have to improve.
The Good through the first four games of the Packers’ season
Jordan Love
The ultimate goal this season for the Packers is to figure out whether or not Jordan Love can be ‘the guy’ moving forward, and in just four games, he’s showcased that he can shoulder those responsibilities. Of course, there are areas to improve upon, as is the case for any inexperienced quarterback, but Love has the required skill set to be a very good starter in this league–now it’s about putting those pieces of the puzzle together consistently.
Through four games, Love has displayed great pocket presence and an ability to go off-schedule when needed to create on his own. He can throw his receivers open as well, placing the ball where not many quarterbacks can, and when you put those two qualities together, you get a quarterback who has a high ceiling and can elevate the offense on his own. Love, for the most part, has also done a good job of taking care of the football and going through his progressions while showing a willingness to push the ball downfield. His poise and ability to almost will Green Bay to victory against New Orleans is perhaps the most exciting aspect that we’ve seen from Love–again, not a lot of quarterbacks are going to be able to do that, especially with how poorly the game had gone up to that point.
Red zone offense
At times, the Green Bay offense has had struggles getting to the red zone, but once there, they’ve been very efficient this season. The Packers currently rank 6th in red zone success rate, scoring a touchdown 69.2 percent of the time. What makes this feat even more impressive is that they’ve been successful in this condensed part of the field without a consistent run game. In this part of the field, in particular, is where we’ve seen Matt LaFleur really dial up some creative play calls to get guys in space.
Anders Carlson
Training camp and the preseason for Anders Carlson was inconsistent, at best. I’m not sure anyone truly knew what to expect from him once the regular season began, but so far, he has been perfect. Carlson has made all nine extra-point attempts and is 5-for-5 on field goals, including 2-for-2 from 50-plus yards.
Rashan Gary and the pass rush
Rashan Gary has been on a snap count the first four games, used primarily in obvious passing situations. Although his opportunities have been limited, he’s made the most out of them, looking as dominant as ever coming off an ACL injury. Despite having just 59 pass rush snaps, which ranks 60th among edge rushers, Gary is tied for fifth in total pressures with 17. He has an absurd win rate of 33.3 percent, which is the best in football at his position group and means he is generating a pressure once every three snaps.
As a unit, the Packers defense has created the second-most pressures in football up to this point in the season. The struggle has been slowing the run to get into pass-rush situations, but when they do, they’ve been getting to the quarterback at a very high rate.
Downfield throws
Of course, there is room to be more efficient, but defenses have played a lot of cover-1 against Green Bay to start the season, almost daring them at times to push the ball downfield, and Love has been happy to take those opportunities. In four games, Love ranks first in pass attempts between 10 to 19 yards and first in pass attempts of 20-plus yards. I do think there is room for this offense to take more of the easier and shorter completions at times, but completing these throws or drawing pass-interference penalties has helped spark a number of their scoring drives.
Honorable mention: Pass protection
If it wasn’t for the Detroit game, where the offensive line was just bullied, pass protection would have been listed in the good category. For three games, this offensive line unit was one of the best in football in pass protection, giving Love the time that he needed to go through his progressions and find the open receiver. The protection has been a key contributor to his early success. Prior to Thursday’s game, Love had rarely been sacked, let alone hit. So for that reason, I’ll give Green Bay’s pass protection an honorable mention.
The Bad through the Packers first four games
Penalties
The Packers currently lead the NFL in penalties called with 31. I know they’ve played an extra game as I am writing this, but still, it hasn’t been good. On special teams, specifically, Green Bay has been flagged 10 times. The offense has been penalized a fair amount as well, and this group just does not have the consistency at this time to overcome penalties, putting them in first and second-and-long situations. It’s a young team; this was expected to a degree, but it has to improve.
Rookie miscues on offense
We are seeing this happen most often in the passing game. The Packers’ young pass catchers are either not running routes as precisely as they should be or have ran the wrong route altogether. The pass catchers are also either just dropping passes or struggling to make contested catches. Again, this is what happens when you rely on such an inexperienced group and where the inability to move the ball at times is coming from. The learning curve is steep, and the Packers are trying to navigate it on offense while not having a run game to lean on.
First down offense
The larger issue here is the Green Bay run game – more on that shortly – but their inability to consistently move the ball on first downs has basically doomed this offense anytime that happens, which, unfortunately, has been somewhat regularly. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers’ average distance to go on second down is 7.86 yards, meaning they are picking up just over two yards per first down play. On third downs, they are averaging 8.04 yards to pick up the first down. For some context, last season, with a struggling offense, that figure was 6.19 yards.
This ineffectiveness on early downs puts the offense in obvious passing situations, making Green Bay predictable and allowing the defensive front to pin its ears back while the defense as a whole is able to get into favorable matchups.
Slow starts and a lack of complimentary football
This issue has been more prevalent in the last two games, but the offense has come out of the gates very slowly, and they’ve been unable to adjust in a timely fashion. Against New Orleans and Detroit, the Packers were outscored 44 to 3 in the first halves of those games. I do think a lot of it has to do with their struggles in the run game and, therefore, issues on early downs, which often has led to short drives and punts. However, even with that being the case, they can’t wait until halftime to make the necessary changes or wait for the break to provide a spark. In most instances, the game is going to already be out of reach at that point.
These slow starts or quiet stretches, as we saw in the fourth quarter against Atlanta, then put the defense in a difficult spot, as they are on the field for extended periods of time with the offense unable to chew up any significant time off the clock. This puts more stress on the defense, which leads to long drives and points for the opponent, and can quickly take away Green Bay’s ability to run the ball, which leads to falling behind the sticks, being in predictable passing situations and punts. The cycle then continues to repeat itself.
The Ugly from the Packers’ first four games
The run game
Well, I’ve alluded to it enough. Now, let’s talk about it. Through four games, the Packers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry as a team, ranking 28th in that category. Of course, not having Aaron Jones for two games doesn’t help. The Packers have had to rely heavily on AJ Dillon, who doesn’t have the burst or playmaking abilities Jones does, but he has also struggled with vision and balance. However, the blame does not only fall on Dillon, but the offensive line has also struggled with blocking. Running lanes just aren’t there with any sort of consistency, and too often, Dillon has been hit in the backfield before he even gets an opportunity to get going.
As I’ve already discussed, these issues on the ground then negatively impact the Green Bay passing game. For a LaFleur offense where the passing game builds off the run-action, moving the ball through the air, and in general, becomes really difficult, as we’ve seen when the run game can’t be relied on.
The run defense
Green Bay’s run defense on the other side of the ball hasn’t been much better. In two of the four games, the Packers have allowed 200-plus rushing yards and overall are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks 23rd. As LaFleur said following the Detroit game, changes will have to be made. In short, what he was referring to was taking a look at everything, specifically, the team’s defensive philosophy, breaking out of that shell coverage Joe Barry loves to play, especially when they know the opponent wants to run the ball.
The Packers’ struggles against the run helps open up the passing game for the opponent, especially off play-action, and puts them in second and third-and-short situations with really the entire playbook open to them. The strength of this Green Bay defense, the pass rush, then can’t play as aggressively because they have to defend both the run and the pass. With the defense having to defend a variety of different plays in these short down and distances, the offense is now doing the dictating, and the defense has to be more reactive than proactive.
Also, as we saw in the Detroit and Atlanta games, where both teams dominated the ground game, success on the ground can lead to a huge discrepancy in the number of plays ran and time of possession. It’s difficult to win when the gaps in those categories are as huge as they were in these two games.
Injuries
It’s an unfortunate part of the game, but the Packers have had to navigate a number of key injuries this season. So far, at various times, they have been without De’Vondre Campbell, Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtairi, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Elgton Jenkins. For any team, not having those players is a lot to overcome, but especially for such a young group like the Packers have.
Green Bay has a mini-bye following their Thursday night game and then their regular bye after their Monday night matchup with Las Vegas. Hopefully, this will give them the opportunity to get healthy.