The Green Bay Packers are at Lambeau Field for the first time this regular season to take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. Here are four key things to watch for and some final thoughts on the matchup.
Following a fourth-quarter collapse against Atlanta that saw the offense unable to pick up a first down and the defense unable to stop the Falcons’ run game, the Packers are looking to rebound against a 2-0 Saints team that boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL through two games. Pick a key category, and they are probably ranked within the top 10.
"“I mean, they have a ton of players on that defense, and they challenge you,” said Matt LaFleur. “But they play aggressive and you’ve got to be very fundamentally sound. “Up front, you’ve got to do a great job of coming off the ball. Playing with great pad level because they are a physical bunch, and they play with extreme effort, and when you get effort plus scheme plus talent, you have one of the best defenses in the NFL.”"
From an injury standpoint, the Packers are hoping to get back some key players, with Aaron Jones and Christian Watson both listed as questionable after practicing in limited fashions on Friday. David Bakhtairi did not practice but is questionable and so are Lukas Van Ness and Jaire Alexander–both of whom practiced Friday.
How do the Packers’ young receivers fare against an aggressive Saints secondary?
The Green Bay Packers offense faces a challenging test this week, going up against a New Orleans defense that ranks among the best in several key categories from points per game, third-down defense, red zone defense, pressures, takeaways, and more. In fact, going back to last season, the Saints are currently riding a 10-game streak where they haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game during that span.
"“Fast. Physical. Aggressive,” said Matt LaFleur about the Saints defense on Wednesday. “Very sound and want to challenge you on all three levels. Demario Davis is a game-wrecker. Cam Jordan. They got guys at all three levels. They’ve got complimentary pieces around that.”"
LaFleur added that he has communicated with the receivers that the Saints will grab and hold them. As we saw last season when Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson were rookies, press coverage and physical play can be difficult for young pass catchers to work around. With the Packers’ inability to push the ball downfield through the first half of the 2022 season, opponents were very willing to challenge the receivers at the line of scrimmage and throughout their routes.
Important for the Packers in an effort to combat the Saints’ style of play is going to be finding some sort of success on the ground so they don’t become one-dimensional. Moving the ball is going to be very difficult if this becomes the case. Also, continuing to utilize motion often and maximizing their versatility by throwing a lot of different looks at the Saints’ defense will be key as well in giving the receivers free releases at the line of scrimmage, along with helping to get them in space and creating mismatches.
What does the offensive line configuration look like, and how do the Packers hold up in the run game?
Elgton Jenkins is out, and David Bakhtiari is questionable. I think it’s safe to say that if the Packers are without Bakhtiari, Rasheed Walker will be the left tackle, but how they handle left guard is a bit of an unknown.
I dive into all the options here, but in short, they either have Royce Newman or Sean Rhyan start at guard and keep everyone else in their normal positions. Or Green Bay could move Zach Tom to left guard and have Yosh Nijman or Walker – depending on Bakhtiari’s status – at right tackle.
If it’s about getting the best five players on the field, then option 2 seems like the way to go. However, my guess is that because Tom has been so good and valuable at right tackle, they keep him there and start Newman or Rhyan at guard.
As already alluded to, the Packers have to be better in the run game. Putting themselves in predictable passing situations against this aggressive defense is not going to be a recipe for success. Green Bay’s lack of early down success in the second half against Atlanta played a contributing role to their overall offensive struggles. Matt LaFleur said earlier in the week that they are putting their entire run game operation under a microscope.
Through two games, the Saints’ defense is allowing 4.4 yards per rush to running backs and ranks 14th in pressure rate.
Can the Packers limit the Saints’ downfield passing attack?
This Saints offense wants to push the ball downfield. Coming into Sunday’s game, Derek Carr ranks first in pass attempts of 20-plus yards with 15, and he’s completed seven of them. Chris Olave’s six targets are the third-most among receivers, and Rashid Shaheed’s four targets are tied for the sixth-most.
"“They’ve got multiple players,” said LaFleur on Wednesday. “They got a lot of guys. I think Carr can sling it. He’s been doing it for years, and he’s going to give his guys opportunities. So definitely have a lot of explosive pieces that we need to make sure we limit those explosive attempts.”"
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Packers approach this game from a gameplan standpoint. If they want to focus on limiting the explosive pass play, we could see a lot of cover-2 from Green Bay.
However, the downside is that cover-2 is very susceptible against the run, especially if the Packers are in nickel, which they will likely be in for most of the day with Olave in the slot. With, traditionally, just two down linemen when in nickel, we could see New Orleans, whether it’s with running back Tony Jones or weapon Taysom Hill, pound the ball between the tackles, where they’ve found some success.
On the flip side, if the Packers try to take away the run, they could leave themselves exposed on the back end to the big passing play–which, again, the Saints are going to want to try to exploit. Jaire Alexander was added to the injury report on Friday and is questionable with a back injury.
As Joe Barry said on Thursday, every week has its own challenges, and this week for the Packers, its striking that balance between trying to limit the run while not giving up the big pass play. Because from a schematic standpoint, you can’t do both at the same time.
Can the Packers’ defensive front win the line-of-scrimmage battle?
Another way to combat the Saints’ willingness to push the ball downfield is by pressuring quarterback Derek Carr, something the Packers should have the opportunity to do on those longer developing routes as they face an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection.
Through two games, the Saints offensive line ranks 26th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency and 28th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. Carr has been sacked eight times already, as well. The majority of the pressures allowed have come from two players, left tackle Trevor Penning and center Erik McCoy. Green Bay, meanwhile, leads the NFL in pressures entering Week 3.
Along with not having Kamara or Williams, as already mentioned, the Saints also haven’t had a robust run game to lean on this season. As a team, they are averaging just 3.4 yards per rush, which ranks 24th.
Taysom Hill will present a unique challenge not only for the Packers’ defensive front as a ball carrier but also for the entire defense with his ability to fill a variety of roles. As LaFleur said, we could see him at quarterback, running back, tight end, and receiver.
"“It’s two different offenses,” said defensive coordinator Joe Barry. “It really is, based on who’s at quarterback. They do a really great job. In essence, he’s a tight end, but they line him up at No. 1, and he runs routes like a receiver. They line him up in the backfield like a halfback. Use him in protection, but then also use him in the passing game out of the backfield. But he truly is a weapon when he’s lined up.”"
At the bare minimum, this gives the Packers a lot that they have to game plan for. In the run game, the Packers’ edge rushers have to be disciplined as we are going to see a lot of read-options. The Saints also run a lot of quarterback draws from shotgun with Hill, who could find success against those two-man interior defensive fronts that we see the Packers utilize.
If you can control the line of scrimmage, oftentimes, you can control the game. After a rough week against the Falcons, the Packers will have the opportunity to do that defensively against an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection and a run game that has not been consistent.
Final thoughts on Packers vs. Saints
– I really hope we see more designed plays for Luke Musgrave. He’s been efficient when targeted, but the offense has gone away from him for long periods of time in each game. With him being such a matchup problem, I would like to see more opportunities come his way.
– If Aaron Jones can’t go, I would like to see more of Emanuel Wilson. With the offensive line struggling, the Packers need someone who has the ability to create for themselves. AJ Dillon has not been able to show that.
– Along with Alexander being on the injury report, Zayne Anderson is out, and Innis Gaines was on there as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers elevate Corey Ballentine, who provides cornerback depth and has special teams experience. Given the injuries to Gaines and Anderson, Ballentine’s elevation may not provide a ton of insight into what Alexander’s status will be.
– Whether it’s Christian Watson or Jayden Reed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either have quite a few targets from the slot. While this is a very good and aggressive Saints’ secondary, slot cornerback Alontae Taylor has had the ball thrown in his direction quite a bit through two games.
– I’m excited to see how this young offense responds against a very good defense and coming off a game in which the team gave away a fourth-quarter lead.
– Even if the Packers offense isn’t putting together long scoring drives, they have to at least pick up a few first downs on drives to take some time off the clock and give their defense a break. It’s been feast or famine this year for the Green Bay offense, either scoring or punting quickly. As we saw against Atlanta, that can lead to a big discrepancy in total plays ran and time of possession.
– The Saints have a very good special teams unit, which could play a key role, especially when it comes to field position, in a game that very well could be low-scoring.
– Situationally, the Packers offense has been very good on third downs and in the red zone, while on the other side of the ball, so have the Saints. These are always key aspects of any football game, but in a battle of strength vs. strength, the winner probably wins the game.