Ahead of the Green Bay Packers Week 2 matchup with the 1-0 Atlanta Falcons, here are five key things to watch for, along with some final thoughts on the game.
Overall, it was a dominant performance from the Packers against the Bears, but they’re in store for a bigger challenge this week. The Green Bay run defense will be tested once again as they face a very run-heavy Falcons team. The Atlanta defense, meanwhile, is aggressive, utilizing a lot of movement, and was quite good at getting after the quarterback in that first game.
"“We are going to have a more difficult challenge in front of us,” said Matt LaFleur earlier in the week. “Just some of the things Atlanta does, they’re a very aggressive defense. “I think they are very good up front and can generate a lot of pressure, and they’re going to challenge you on the perimeter. I think every week is a different challenge in terms of what somebody does or maybe the personnel, or whatever it may be, so it’s just the next challenge.”"
As always, there will be a lot to watch for as the game unfolds, but below are my five most important elements to this game.
Packers run defense vs. Atlanta run game
The Green Bay Packers’ run defense is coming off a good Week 1 performance against Chicago, where they were able to contain Justin Fields, for the most part, and held the Bears’ running backs to just over three yards per rush. This week, they will be tested once again against an Atlanta offense that very much wants to run the ball.
Last week against Carolina, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson combined for 25 carries and 5.3 yards per rush. Matt LaFleur noted how difficult both can be to tackle, and we saw that against the Panthers, with Allgeier forcing five missed tackles, the second-most in football, and both running backs finishing in the top 15 among all running backs in average yards after contact. It also looks like the Falcons will be getting Cordarrelle Patterson back after he missed the first game with an injury. Patterson averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2022 and is proven to be difficult to tackle.
"“All three of their backs are really dynamic and all of them can take it to the house,” said run game coordinator Jerry Montgomery. “It’s the scheme that they run. Those guys, they press the line of scrimmage and get you running and they’ll cut it back and get downhill. Whether it’s 7, 25 or 84, all three of those guys can take it to the house. It’s definitely going to be a challenge. So we will have our hands full all day.”"
Before the Bears game, Kenny Clark said that priority No. 1 for the defense was slowing the run game, and I imagine it’s a similar thought process this week. If the Packers can limit the Falcons’ rushing attack, it will put them in predictable passing situations and allow the defensive front to get after an offensive line that struggled in pass protection last week. It will also force Desmond Ridder to not rely only on short and quick passes.
How do the Packers defend Kyle Pitts and Drake London?
In the passing game, the Falcons have two big-play threats in tight end Kyle Pitts, who lines up primarily from the slot or out wide, and wide receiver Drake London. However, neither was utilized very often in the passing game against Carolina. Of Ridder’s 18 pass attempts in Week 1 – the fewest among quarterbacks – eight were at or behind the line of scrimmage, and only four traveled more than 10 yards, according to PFF. This resulted in one target and no receptions for Lond and two receptions on three targets for Pitts–although one completion was for 34 yards.
As was just discussed, the Falcons want to run the ball and will rely heavily on the quick passing game. So, in an effort to take away or at least limit what Atlanta wants to do, shrinking the field by playing closer to the line of scrimmage can make moving the ball on the ground and through the quick game more difficult. However, that potentially leaves Green Bay more susceptible on the back end, especially with players like Pitts and London.
For Joe Barry, it’s about striking a balance. Of course, he doesn’t have to only play with loaded boxes to stop the run, and he doesn’t have to only play off-coverage and sit back in a two-high shell to prevent the big passing play, either. As safeties coach Ryan Downard said on Thursday, it’s going to be important for the secondary that they read their keys and have disciplined eyes to help them determine whether it’s a run or a pass play they have to defend.
Given that we are yet to see Ridder and the Falcons’ offense really try to push the ball downfield, let alone have any consistent success with it, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Packers taking a bit more aggressive approach and trying to take away the run and quick games. They have a very good group of cornerbacks, as we know, so trust them to make plays. And if the Falcons connect on a downfield pass or two, tip your hat and make the necessary adjustments.
The Packers’ run game vs. Falcons’ defensive front
Overall, it was a very good Week 1 performance from the Packers offense, but where they have to improve is in the run game. As a team, Green Bay averaged just 2.9 yards per rush against the Bears, with there being very few running lanes, and on several toss plays or outside zone runs, Chicago had a defender or two flying free into the backfield.
The Falcons’ run defense bottled up the Panthers’ run game for the most part in Week 1. Carolina generated a few chunk plays but primarily had little daylight to work with. Out of all 32 teams, Atlanta finished 10th in ESPN’s run-stop rate metric following the first game.
"“Atlanta has an excellent defense,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich on Thursday. “Their defensive line is very good. Calais Campbell, Grady Jarrett, Oneymata, all those guys are really, really physical, established players in this league. ”So it’s going to be a huge challenge for us,” added Stenavich, “basically across the board. We just got to keep doing a great job of communicating. Keep doing a great job of executing and just making sure that when we get the opportunities to make plays we do.”"
As I’ve written about previously, consistent success on the ground feels like a near must for this young Packers offense. For one, it will keep Jordan Love out of obvious passing situations, but it will also open up the passing game as well as play-action. On the flip side, if they’re regularly bottled up on the ground, everything from the offense’s perspective becomes more challenging.
Which team can get more pressure on the opposing quarterback?
Following last week’s win against Chicago, Matt LaFleur said a key difference in the game was the Packers’ ability to protect Jordan Love while also getting after Justin Fields. The Bears, on the other hand, were not able to protect Fields very well nor pressure Love.
The Packers defense forced a whopping 36 pressures against the Bears, with Fields under pressure on over 50 percent of his dropbacks. This week, there will be the opportunity to again get after the quarterback, with the Atlanta offensive line allowing four sacks on just 22 dropbacks in Week 1, according to PFF. As a unit, the offensive line ranked 21st in pass-block win rate as well.
However, the struggle for the Packers could be the Atlanta quick passing game. As was previously mentioned, nearly half of Ridder’s passes didn’t go past the line of scrimmage, and almost all of them were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. His average time to throw of 2.63 seconds was the ninth-fastest rate among quarterbacks.
"“The first thing is,” said Barry about defending the quick passing game as a pass rusher, “what always happens is it’s natural, especially for those rushers to get frustrated. Those guys want to pin their ears back and rush the passer and get after the passer. We talk about sacks and pressures and hits, and it’s hard to do that in the quick passing game. “You can affect the passer in many ways, even when the ball is coming out quick. You can get your hands up. You can tip balls. So it is frustrating, but as a pass rusher, you just have to keep playing, and when you do get your opp, you got to cash in.”"
This is why slowing the run game will be important for the Packers’ defense as a whole. It will put Ridder and the Atlanta offense in second and third-and-long situations, where they can’t be as reliant on the quick game, giving the Green Bay pass rush a little extra time to rush the quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, this is a Packers offensive line that gave up just two pressures against Chicago, but they will be up against a more challenging opponent this week. The Falcons were able to generate 28 pressures in Week 1, the sixth most in football. Time in the pocket for Love will give his young pass catchers additional time to get open against an aggressive Atlanta secondary.
The Packers’ young receivers vs. an aggressive Falcons’ secondary
In talking with both Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich this week, a common word used to describe the Falcons’ defense was aggressive. That play style applies to the entire unit, but especially the secondary. This group came away with three turnovers against Carolina – all of which were created by Jessie Bates – and held the Panthers’ offense to just 3.2 yards per pass attempt.
This is a group with good length and athleticism, but the cornerbacks are also more than willing to challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage, while the safeties will utilize late movement to cause some confusion for the offense. This is something we saw New England utilize against Green Bay in joint practices, and it made moving the ball very difficult for the Packers offense, specifically during that second day of practice.
"“I think all those guys are really solid players,” said LaFleur. “They play a really aggressive scheme as well. They’ll get up in your face. They’ll challenge you. And they do a nice job. They’ve got really good length and size and can run. So it’ll be a good task for our young receiver group.”"
If Green Bay is going to find success, it all begins with the offensive line play. Moving the ball on the ground will open up opportunities in the passing game. Time in the pocket will allow Love to go through his progressions and give the pass catchers additional time to get open.
The Packers also need to continue using motion, which can limit a defense’s ability to disguise coverages by forcing them to make adjustments late. Not to mention that Green Bay’s versatility can create mismatches, get pass catchers in space, and cause some chaos, making it more difficult for defenses to decipher what’s taking place or what a specific player’s responsibilities are.
Final Thoughts
– If the Packers are without David Bakhtiari, who is listed as questionable, I would guess that they will move Zach Tom to left tackle, and Rasheed Walker will take over at right tackle. During the last few weeks of training camp, Walker was ahead of Yosh Nijman.
– It’s all about consistency for rookie Anders Carlson. After going 5-for-5 on extra points in Week 1 and making a 52-yard field goal, how does he perform in Week 2? After this summer, I’m not sure what to expect.
– It goes without saying, but not having Aaron Jones would be a massive loss for this offense. It would put even more pressure on the offensive line to create running lanes because AJ Dillon just doesn’t have the same ability as Jones to create on his own. Emanuel Wilson would also play a big role as well.
– The Packers put a ton on tape in Week 1 from a formations and run scheme standpoint. What that does is it gives the Falcons a lot to gameplan for and makes it much more difficult to key in on one or two specific things that this Green Bay offense does.
– With the Falcons wanting to run the ball but also having two downfield threats in the passing game, the safety position, in particular, will be stressed the most because Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford will have to be ready to help in both areas.
– Josh Myers going up against Grady Jarrett is a matchup to watch. Jarrett could very well make it a long day for Myers.
– I thought Luke Musgrave and Ben Sims held up fairly well as blockers against the Bears. Can they do it again and do so against a better front?