Football is the ultimate team game, but these four players in particular are going to play key roles in determining Sunday’s outcome between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.
An X-Factor is defined as a person, in this instance, who has a strong but also unpredictable influence on an outcome. While we all know that the stars for this Packers team will have to play well if Green Bay is going to win. Sound performances from Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Christian Watson, Jordan Love, and others are going to be near musts each week for Green Bay.
However, in what very well could be a close game on Sunday, it’s the play of these four X-Factors for Green Bay, with two on offense and two on defense, that could swing the outcome one way or the other.
Packers X-Factor: TJ Slaton
As Matt LaFleur said earlier in the week, this is a Bears offense that is going to run the football. Justin Fields had over 1,100 rushing yards in 2022. Khalil Herbert’s 5.7 yards per rush was the second best average in football, and the team also added Texas running back Roschon Johnson in the draft. The best way to quickly ruin any play for an offense, whether it be a run or a pass, is with pressure up the middle. Slaton’s ability to also effectively handle double-teams along the interior will also free up one-on-one opportunities for his teammates.
I’ve been impressed with the play of the interior defensive line unit as a whole this summer. This is a group that looks much faster, with their being a greater emphasis on shooting gaps rather than eating up space. There is also added versatility to accompany that speed along with more post snaps movement to cause some chaos for the offensive line. However, with that said, the interior defensive line, which Kenny Clark said was going to look different this year, faces a difficult test right out of the gates having to contain Fields and this Bears’ run game. If Green Bay can slow Chicago on the ground, it will put Fields in obvious passing situations where the Packers defense can really shine with their ability to get after the quarterback.
Packers X-Factor: Luke Musgrave
With the Packers potentially being shorthanded at wide receiver with the statuses of Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson unknown, the need for Luke Musgrave to impact the passing game increases greatly. With his size and athleticism, Musgrave is a matchup problem, able to stretch the field vertically, win over the middle, and even line up on the boundary with cornerbacks. We’ve seen flashes of his playmaking upside this summer, but there have also been some inconsistencies with drops as well. Musgrave’s presence not only creates big play chances for himself, but for others in the offense with the attentions he draws and spacing he forces defenses to create.
"“He can definitely stretch the field,” said Jayden Reed on Wednesday. “A guy that huge that can run at tight end like that and make big plays, that definitely opens things up for the receiving core. I’m just looking forward to seeing him go out there and do what he do.”"
Also an important aspect of playing tight end is the blocking component. Although the numbers from last season didn’t reflect it, LaFleur was impressed with this Bears’ defense from a season ago and noted their ability to scheme up pressures. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see Chicago crowding the line of scrimmage more, especially if the Packers are without either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs, in an effort to shrink the field and bottle things up.
Success for the Packers offense starts with being able to consistently move the ball on the ground, helping to keep Love and the young pass-catchers out of obvious passing situations, not to mention that the run game will also help open up opportunities in the passing game as well. And, of course, giving Love a clean pocket to throw from will be crucial as well. As is often the case with rookie tight ends, blocking has come with a steep learning curve for Musgrave this summer.
Packers X-Factor: Keisean Nixon
To his credit, Keisean Nixon has looked very natural playing from the slot this offseason. But, it’s important to keep in mind that this is also going to be his first time truly being the guy at a position on the defensive side of the ball since he entered the NFL, and he starts off with having to face Darnell Mooney and DJ Moore.
"“Talking about traits and attributes in players,” said Joe Barry about Nixon, “the one thing that you guys know about Keisean is that he’s very confident. He’s confident in his abilities and what he can do. But I definitely think it’s helped that we made the decision early on in the offseason that he was going to be our nickel. “So it’s not one of those things that we kind of fell into it or he was a second-team guy that won the job, really from our first OTA day back in May, Keisean has been our starting nickel, and he’s gotten the exclusive work the last six months with our starting group. So that’s been huge.”"
Mooney spent about 60 percent of his snaps in the slot last season, and is a high-volume target for this Bears offense who can win inside and out, attacking the short and intermediate routes with YAC potential. Moore is primarily a boundary target but has spent roughly one-third of his career snaps inside, according to PFF.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore sees more snaps from the slot than usual in an effort to line up away from Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas. We saw it last season, with Alexander and Douglas on the boundary, opponents chose to test Nixon inside.
Packers X-Factor: AJ Dillon
As I’ve already discussed, the run game is going to be crucial to the Packers overall success on offense, not only against Chicago but throughout the season. In short, it keeps the offense ahead of the sticks and out of obvious passing situations while opening up opportunities in the passing game. This is also a Bears defense that really struggled to stop the run last season and even with their new additions to the front seven, how they handle it is still an unknown.
As of now, we do not know if Doubs or Watson will be available but, as I wrote about recently, in the past when the Packers have been shorthanded at receiver, they’ve leaned heavily on Aaron Jones in the passing game. Now, this isn’t to say that if that’s the case, Jones won’t be asked to run the ball or if both Doubs or Watson are available, Dillon won’t be an important part of the offense – he is going to be regardless – but the need for him to make an impact increases if Jones is taking on more pass-catching responsibilities.
From a numbers standpoint, 2022 was a down season for Dillon, in terms of yards per carry and his ability to force missed tackles. In need of a bounce-back season, the emphasis for him this offseason has been on running with a lower pad level and using his size and strength to hiseeg advantage. Dillon also told me that rather than trying to be perfect in everything he does, which was the case last season, his mindset is to be dominant.
During the Packers Week 13 matchup with Chicago last season, Dillon averaged 5.2 yards per rush with the offense leaning heavily on him in that game. There’s the potential that we see a similar formula on Sunday.