Packers RBs Jones and Dillon should play big roles vs. Bears
By Paul Bretl
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are going to have to play key roles all season for this Green Bay Packers offense. I can’t envision a successful Packers offense that doesn’t include these two playing well. But this Sunday, in particular, against the Chicago Bears, both should be relied on heavily.
For one thing, and this will be the case all year, a consistent rushing attack will make things easier on first-time starting quarterback Jordan Love by keeping the offense out of predictable passing situations. By staying ahead of the sticks, it opens up the playbook for Matt LaFleur, allowing the offense to dictate things while setting up play-action–an important element of this offense. A reliable run game also allows the offense to control the time of possession.
In addition to all of that, slowing the run game was also something that this Bears’ defense really struggled with last season. The 4.9 yards per rush that they allowed ranked 27th, and this unit against the run ranked 29th by DVOA. In the offseason, Chicago did sign linebacker TJ Edwards and interior defender Andrew Billings, which should help against the run. But with that said, going from being close to last in run defense to a top-10 unit probably isn’t likely either.
Gene Chamberlain, who covers Chicago for Sports Illustrated’s Bears Digest, labeled the run defense as one of the weaknesses heading into 2023 and had this to say:
"“They had plenty of tackles behind the line by Justin Jones as a three technique but also the scheme wasn’t in sync. Too many times opponents found gaps created by too much penetration too soon, by players who weren’t gap-sound or by defenders who just got blown off the ball. The preseason wasn’t too encouraging as the Bills and Titans quickly moved downfield on them using their rushing attacks. The Bills piled up 173 rushing yards.”"
In Week 2 against the Bears last season, Jones and Dillon combined for 33 rush attempts for 203 rushing yards, with Jones accounting for 132 of those yards at a whopping 8.8 yards per rush. Then, in the teams’ second matchup in Week 13, Dillon averaged 5.2 yards per rush that game, with Green Bay again handing the ball off at least 30 times in that game.
In six out of 17 games last season, the Packers had at least 30 rushing attempts for their running backs, with two of those games coming against the Bears. It’s a new season with a number of changes that have taken place in Green Bay, as well as in Chicago, but I imagine the formula in regards to the run-pass mix will be similar.
As already alluded to, success on the ground will then set up opportunities in the passing game for the Green Bay offense, specifically downfield. These opportunities to push the ball could come off play-action, or it’s quite possible that the Bears will come into this game trying to take the run game away and force Love to beat them.
Attempting the latter will include playing closer to the line of scrimmage in an effort to condense the field. However, this will then also set up one-on-one opportunities for the Packers’ receivers against a Bears’ defense that already relies heavily on playing cover-1 and cover-2 looks. As Daire Carragher of Packer Report wrote recently, when the Packers were given these coverage looks last season, they bombarded opponents with downfield pass attempts to Christian Watson. So that element could also be a big part of Sunday’s matchup.
Success on the ground will be key for the Packers offense the entire season. But this is also a Bears defense, similar to Green Bay, that has to prove they can contain the run. And until they consistently show that they can do that, we should expect a heavy dose of Jones and Dillon on Sunday.