What Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Extension Could Be With Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks managed to keep key players Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez on board this summer, but the big question looms: can they secure a contract extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo this fall?

Though it might feel like déjà vu with Antetokounmpo’s contract talks, it’s been about two and a half years since he last signed an extension with the Bucks. Looking ahead, he’s set to earn $45.6 million in the upcoming season, followed by $48.8 million in 2024-25, and then a player option of $51.9 million in 2025-26.

This timeline neatly matches up with the contracts of the rest of the Bucks’ core players. Jrue Holiday’s deal goes through 2023-24 with a player option for the following season. Middleton’s contract extends until 2024-25, also with a player option in 2025-26. Brook Lopez’s contract stretches to 2024-25. Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis are also part of this timeline.

Here’s what Giannis Antetokounmpo’s contract extension with the Milwaukee Bucks could look like when he’s eligible to sign.

Circle September 22nd on your calendar; it’s a pivotal day when Antetokounmpo becomes eligible for a contract extension.

Currently, he falls below the maximum salary threshold. This is a product of the NBA’s evolving landscape, with escalating salary caps and annual signings. When the upcoming season tips off, he will rank as the eighth-highest earner in the league—a surprisingly modest figure for someone widely acknowledged as a top-two player in the world.

The window from September 22nd to October 23rd (the last day he can sign an extension) presents various possible scenarios.

The initial course could involve inaction—Giannis might choose not to ink an extension. Such a decision places pressure on Milwaukee to adjust the team’s composition as the current core matures and existing contracts run their course. This path is the most probable and shouldn’t cause undue alarm. National media will inevitably drum up buzz, perhaps floating rumors of potential suitors like the Miami Heat vying for his services. Remain skeptical of such narratives. Let it be clear: opting not to sign is a strategic move to maintain the Bucks’ hunger for continual roster enhancement.

On the flip side, we rock if he does sign!

Antetokounmpo will have two options if he agrees to an extension:

1. Sign a two-year deal that begins in 2026-27, after his player option.
2. Sign a three-year extension that replaces his player option, beginning in 2025-26.

This is where things start to get complex. While the reported dollar figures for any extension might surface, the definitive numbers won’t be locked until June 30th of the extension’s start year. That’s when the NBA finalizes the salary cap for the upcoming season.

In the case of a player with 10 or more years of NBA experience—like Antetokounmpo—opting for a maximum extension means a starting salary of 35 percent of the salary cap (Note: We need to re-condition ourselves to think in terms of percentage of the cap instead of the raw annual salaries that are sky-rocketing). By staying with the Bucks, this initial salary would swell by eight percent each year.

Here’s where the waters get murky in terms of the annual contract value. The actual salary cap remains unknown until June 30th of that particular year, leaving us to estimate within a range of values when gauging any extension.

Assuming a five percent raise in the salary cap annually—aligning with the NBA’s projection—an Antetokounmpo extension spanning two years would total around $113.9 million, set to tip off in 2026-27. Extending to three years would yield roughly $169.4 million, commencing in 2025-26.

However, the NBA can amplify the salary cap by a maximum of 10 percent each year. In this scenario, a two-year extension becomes approximately $131.8 million, and a three-year extends to about $187 million. Naturally, the actual percentages could nestle anywhere within these approximations or potentially dip below the anticipated five percent should unforeseen factors intervene.

Due to the fluid nature of the NBA salary cap, all these calculations are essentially educated guesses at this stage. This includes an Antetokounmpo extension, the recently inked Anthony Davis agreement, and the considerations for any other player operating within a maximum contract framework.

One fact remains certain: Come September 22nd, a contingent from the Bucks will be at Giannis’s doorstep, ready to propose the extension terms he desires.