Packers defense has to help young offense by creating regular turnovers
By Paul Bretl
Turnovers come in bunches, as they say, and that was the case for the Green Bay Packers defense last season. However, with a young offense in 2023, this group will have to be more consistent in generating takeaways.
For a large portion of the 2022 season, the Packers ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in takeaways. But a strong finish to the season vaulted them into the top 10. During Green Bay’s four-game win streak before their season-ending loss to Detroit, the Packers had forced 12 turnovers, including eight against Miami and Minnesota in Weeks 16 and 17. As Matt LaFleur said, a big reason that the Packers had won those games was because of the turnovers created.
Turnovers are a volatile stat. Doing well – or poorly – does not mean that trend will continue to the following season, even if the defensive personnel is relatively unchanged. As we saw from the Packers last season, even within the season, there can be a drastic shift. So while me saying that the Packers need to generate turnovers more regularly is easy to do, it’s actually quite difficult, as we know. But there were two key factors that contributed to their sudden change in turnover fortune last season.
The first was that the Green Bay defense generated more consistent pressure on the quarterback. This leads to more turnover opportunities by getting the quarterback on the move, hurried, and out of rhythm. We also saw the Packers’ secondary positioned better after adjustments made by Joe Barry, including more cover-2, cover-6, and less soft coverages. This gave the defenders more chances to make plays on the ball, which they did.
Winning the turnover battle is always important and has been a crucial part of the Packers’ success under LaFleur. Since he became head coach in 2019, Green Bay is 33-3 when creating more turnovers than their opponents. However, with a first-time starting quarterback and a young group of pass catchers, winning the turnover battle feels like a must for the 2023 Packers, given that the offense may not be able to overcome a deficit, or at least not consistently.
At the very least, early on in the season – and odds are longer – I’m going to guess that points will be at a premium for the offense. This means that takeaways from the defense to provide the offense with extra possessions and shorter fields are extremely valuable. It also means that overcoming deficits, especially those that become greater than one score, is going to be challenging. In 2022, the Packers sputtering offense was just 2-5 in games where they lost the turnover battle.
Winning the turnover battle with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback was one thing. He has a historically low interception rate of just 1.4%, so coming away with even one turnover was enough to do the job. But many young quarterbacks tend to be turnover prone, especially when targeting the middle of the field, as Love likely will often. This will put the defense in some difficult situations, including defending short fields and having to generate multiple turnovers to win the takeaway battle.
Nothing mentioned in this article is ground breaking by any means. Turnovers are good and they increase a team’s chances of winning—we know that. With that said, if this season the defense generates takeaways at the same rate they did a year ago through the first 12-plus games, it’s putting more of a burden on this young Packers’ offense.