Revisiting 8 Packers predictions about 2023 NFL Draft

Although bold predictions can be fun, what about predictions that have a decent chance of actually taking place? Before the 2023 NFL draft, that was my goal as I made eight realistic predictions for the Green Bay Packers.

Now that the draft is over, it’s time to look back and see how I did.

Prediction: Packers take at least four total receivers and tight ends

Verdict: Correct

The reasoning behind this prediction is pretty clear–both position groups lacked depth and experience. The Packers entered the draft with only five receivers, and only Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs had seen more than 150 career snaps. Tight end was in a worse position with only four players on the roster, one being an H-back, another special teams contributor, and two practice squad players.

Putting more pass-catchers around Jordan Love was a must, and that’s what the Packers did. On Day 2, they would select tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft while taking receiver Jayden Reed. Green Bay then added two more receivers in Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose on Day 3. With all of the inexperience on the roster, there will be ups and downs at these position groups, but they also have some legitimate playmaking abilities.

Prediction: Packers take an interior defensive lineman in the top 100

Verdict: Wrong

To me, there were three position groups that the Packers had to address in this draft, and along with the two just discussed, the interior defensive line was a part of that group as well. For a position that is often rotated, with four or five players seeing playing time each week, the Packers entered the draft with only five on the roster. As we saw during the final weeks of the regular season, a more consistent push upfront will benefit everyone on the entire defense and can impact both the running and passing games drastically.

Although Green Bay did end up taking two interior defenders, along with Lukas Van Ness in Round 1, who can kick inside, their first selection wasn’t until Round 4 at pick 116 when they took Auburn’s Colby Wooden.

Prediction: the Packers take two offensive linemen

Verdict: Wrong

I was way off on this one. For the first time since 2015, the Packers didn’t end up taking any, which comes after three consecutive years where the Packers took three offensive linemen in each draft. With there being some potential uncertainty around the offensive tackle position in 2024 with David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman both possibly playing elsewhere, I did think that the Packers spending an early-round pick on the position was in play. I also thought that with as many picks as they had, odds were that they would add another along the way on Day 3 since that is what Guetkunst has frequently done previously.

However, that wasn’t the case. As Gutekunst noted following the draft, Green Bay has a very deep offensive line unit already in place, and once they got past a certain point in the draft, that rookie would have had a difficult time making the team. This also wasn’t a very deep offensive tackle class, so once the Packers passed on Broderick Jones in Round 1, it’s not as if there were many options remaining in terms of finding an immediate impact player.

Prediction: We won’t see the Packers trading up this year

Verdict: Correct

Perhaps the Packers thought about it in Round 2 as tight ends started to come off the board, but they didn’t ever move up. In fact, they traded down twice. Ultimatley, I didn’t feel that there were any players, especially in Round 1, worth moving up for. On top of that, it’s not as if this is a Packers team that was one player away. Instead, they had a number of needs to fill. Lastly, Green Bay’s salary cap situation in 2024 will still be somewhat tight, so the more cost-effective rookie deals they can have on the 53-man roster, the better it will be from a salary cap perspective, as the Packers still feel the effects of recent offseasons.

Prediction: Packers don’t take a safety in the top 100

Verdict: Correct

This may have been considered a pressing need, along with tight end, receiver, and defensive tackle, but this was not a good draft class to be needing a safety. Gutekunst had also prepared for this in free agency by making several additions to the safety position. This isn’t to say that there isn’t room for upgrades on the roster, but between Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, Tarvarius Moore, Dallin Leavitt, and Innis Gaines, the Packers did, at the very least, have options. Taking a safety was not a must for them. They ended up landing Anthony Johnson in Round 7, who brings versatility with cornerback experience and is a willing run defender. He will have the opportunity to earn playing time right away.

Prediction: In Round 1, the Packers will take one of these six players–Deonte Banks, Joey Porter, Darnell Wright, Broderick Jones, Myles Murphy, and Lukas Van Ness

Verdict: Correct

Before the draft took place, I created my shortlist of Round 1 targets for the Packers. I started with roughly 30 prospects and whittled the list down based on past draft tendencies and thresholds the Packers have, including position, measurables, and age, along with being realistic about who may or may not be on their radar at pick 15 from a value standpoint. The end result was the six players listed.

The Packers taking Van Ness should be the furthest thing from a surprise. He plays a premier position where Green Bay has a need. He has that big edge rusher frame they prefer and tested incredibly well. Van Ness is also versatile and still just 21 years old. This was a very Packers pick.

Prediction: The Packers take a quarterback by Round 5

Verdict: Correct

When making this prediction, I landed on Round 5 because I didn’t think it would be a top 100 pick for the Packers, given the other needs they have, but I also didn’t think they would wait terribly long on Day 3 to address this need either. Following the Aaron Rodgers trade, only Jordan Love and Danny Etling were on the roster.

The Sean Clifford pick was a surprise to most as many expected him to go undrafted. However, just before he was taken, there was a run on quarterbacks, and in total, 10 had been selected at that point in the draft. When teams enter the draft with positions they have to address, and quarterback was one of them, the board has a greater impact on their process. With that said, whether it was Gutekunst, Matt LaFleur, or Milt Hendrickson, it was clear that Green Bay valued Clifford’s experience, athleticism, and fit in the locker room.

Prediction: The Packers draft a Kicker

Verdict: Correct

Although drafting a kicker isn’t common, with only Parker White on the roster beforehand, and he has no NFL experience, it felt like a near-given for the Packers. Now, like Clifford, whether or not anyone expected that pick to be Anders Carlson is a different story. Carlson’s college numbers don’t exactly leap off the page, but he did deal with injuries, and there is some familiarity there as Rich Bisaccia was the special teams coach in Las Vegas with Daniel Carlson – Anders’ brother – for a few seasons. Gutekunst also referenced Bisaccia’s strong track record in working with kickers and that since he was comfortable with the pick, so was Gutey.