5 Trade down scenarios for the Packers from pick 13
By Paul Bretl
A few weeks ago, I used the Rich Hill trade value chart and went through five trade-down scenarios for the Green Bay Packers from pick 15. But now that they hold the 13th overall pick, what additional draft capital can they acquire by moving back?
In each of Brian Gutekunst’s first five drafts, with the first 100 picks, he has traded up in every one of them, including three times within the first round. This year, however, moving back from pick 13 makes all the sense for the Packers. I dive into greater detail as to why right here, but in short, it’s for these four reasons:
– The Packers need more inexpensive rookie contracts. In 2024, Green Bay will still be feeling the side effects from past offseasons on the salary cap, so to help reset things to a degree, they need to build out the roster with as many rookie contracts as they can get.
– There are a number of needs to fill. Receiver, tight end, and interior defensive lineman are all positions the Packers must add to, given how the roster is constructed, and could so at any of them with multiple picks. Safety, edge rusher, offensive tackle, running back, cornerback, kicker, and quarterback are all other positions the Packers could spend draft picks on as well.
– The strength of this draft class. When it comes to most of the needs that the Packers have, they overlap quite well with where the strengths of this draft class lie. Meaning that there will be viable options at edge rusher, receiver, tight end, and interior defensive lineman in Rounds 2 through 4, so Green Bay should get more picks in that range if they can.
– This is a team in a transition and not one player away from being a contender.
A recent report from Albert Breer of SI suggests that moving back is something that the Packers are considering. Breer mentions that Green Bay is potentially eyeing Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid, but taking either at 13 would be “a tad high” to select them.
Once again, using the Rich Hill trade value chart, which assigns a quantitative value to each draft pick, I’ve put together five trade-back scenarios for the Packers. I do not know if any of the teams that I chose for this exercise will want to move up, but the purpose of the article is to illustrate what the Packers could get in return by moving down to various points in the draft.
As always, I want to note that it was my goal to make these trades as equal as possible, with the value chart as my guide, and I can only account for 2023 draft picks being exchanged, not future ones.
Green Bay trades down to pick 16 with Washington
Packers receive: picks 16 (R1), 118 (R4), and 193 (R6)
Commanders receive: pick 13 (R1)
Green Bay trades down to pick 19 with Tampa Bay
Packers receive: picks 19 (R1), 82 (R3), and 252 (R7)
Bucs receive: pick 13 (R1)
Green Bay trades down to pick 21 with Chargers
Packers receive: picks 21 (R1), 85 (R3), 125 (R4), 200 (R6)
Chargers receive: pick 13 (R1)
Green Bay trades down to pick 24 with Jacksonville
Packers receive: picks 24 (R1) and 56 (R2)
Jaguars receive: pick 13 (R1)
Green Bay trades down to pick 26 with Dallas
Packers receive: picks 26 (R1), 58 (R2), and 129 (R4)
Cowboys receive: pick 13 (R1)
Note: although dropping from pick 13 to 26 is a big move down the draft board, we did see Gutekunst make a similar move in 2018 when he traded back with New Orleans, going from pick 14 to 27 before then trading back up.