Packers have good chance to get high draft pick from Jets in 2024

With the Green Bay Packers’ trade of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets becoming official, it’s time to look ahead for Green Bay. That includes peeping at the Jet’s 2023 schedule to predict what type of 2024 draft pick the Packers will receive.

As part of the deal, Green Bay receives a 2024 second-round selection from New York that escalates to a first-rounder if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the team’s snaps this year, a feat he’s accomplished in each of the last five seasons.

Assuming Rodgers hits that milestone, the Packers could be looking at a very good pick coming over in the 2024 draft.

The Green Bay Packers’ conditional 2024 draft pick from the New York Jets via the Aaron Rodgers trade has a good chance of being a high selection.

The AFC East will have one of the most challenging schedules in the NFL next season. Their mutual opponents went 155-129-3 last year. Overall, the Jets’ have the sixth-toughest 2023 schedule based on 2022 standings.

Of course, New York will play the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets twice. The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL and present two possible losses for the Jets. Miami started out hot before barely making it into the playoffs. They played the Bills tough in the Wild Card round and should be better if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy.

The Jets will also host the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders and Houston Texans. The Texans and Falcons are easy wins, while the Chargers and Commanders present challenges, but should be victories as well. The Chiefs and Eagles should hand the Jets two more losses.

On the road, New York takes on the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys present another likely loss, but none of their road games come easy,

Suppose we start with a baseline of losses to the Bills (twice), Chiefs, Eagles and Cowboys, that gives the Jets at least five tallies against them. We will hand them victories over the Falcons and Texans, to bring their record to 2-5.

Let’s also assume they split with the Dolphins and win both games against the Patriots. That puts them at 5-6.

We’ll also give them overall splits in their games against the Chargers, Giants Commanders, Browns, Broncos and Raiders. That gives them an overall record of 8-9, which would’ve been good for the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft.

Of course, with Rodgers at the helm, the Jets could easily win several more of those toss-up games and push their record into the .500 territory. The opposite could also happen if Rodgers plays closer to his 2022 version than in previous years. A slippage of just a game or two from that 8-9 record would give the Packers a top-10 pick.

That record could be compounded if Rodgers misses four games. He would still hit the 65 percent threshold, but the Jets would be far worse in those four contests.

We’ll see how it plays out, but there is a good chance Green Bay will get a high draft pick in 2024.