Packers take TE Dalton Kincaid in Daniel Jeremiah’s final mock draft

On the eve of the 2023 NFL Draft, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah had the Green Bay Packers taking Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 13th overall pick.

Jeremiah added that he believes Kincaid is a great fit for the Packers’ offense and that they’ll have the chance to circle back wide receiver later on. However, he did acknowledge that Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was still available, could be in play as well.

In a very deep tight end class, Kincaid is considered by most, including Jeremiah, to be the best pass catcher at the position. This dynamic element is something that the Packers very much need in 2023. While Robert Tonyan was reliable last season, his 8.9 yards per catch ranked 34th out of 43 eligible tight ends.

The Packers have already shown interest in Kincaid, having him in for an official pre-draft visit. Kincaid stands 6’3″ and weighs 246 pounds. He was having a breakout year in 2022 before suffering a back injury that he has since been cleared from, catching 76% of his 87 passes at 12.9 yards per catch, along with eight touchdowns. He would rank first among tight ends in YAC and yards per route ran, per PFF.

Blocking at tight end is an important part of playing that position in Matt LaFleur’s offense, but don’t be mistaken, if the Packers do select Kincaid, his primary responsibility will be as a pass catcher. As of now, the Packers don’t have a true slot option at wide receiver, but Kincaid would become that presence for them.

For a closer look at what Kincaid can add to the Green Bay offense, Lance Zierlien of NFL.com wrote this in his pre-draft report:

"“Move tight end whose premium talent as a pass-catcher will be the primary focus for evaluators. Kincaid is a fluid route runner with the athleticism and play speed to create mismatches against lesser coverage. Impeccable ball skills and sticky hands allow him to tilt 50/50 contested throws in his favor. He lacks the play strength and technique to work in-line, but can handle some positional blocking in space from time to time. Kincaid can manage a more extended route tree, allowing calculating play-callers to open up the entire field and stress coverages. He will need to acclimate to a more physical/athletic brand of coverage, but should blossom into a weapon.”"

Now, a lot of draft analysts over the last few months have had the Packers taking Kincaid, so what’s different about Jeremiah making this prediction? Well, his track record.

In Jeremiah’s final 2022 mock draft, he had the Packers taking Quay Walker, a very under-the-radar selection. In this third mock draft in 2020, he had Green Bay selecting Jordan Love. In 2019, Jeremiah sent Drew Lock to the Packers in Round 2, who we later learned they were interested in. And lastly, he mentioned Jaire Alexander.

The biggest argument around the Packers taking a tight end in Round 1, even with it being a big need, is the lack of value that comes with selecting this position early on.

Almost all first-year tight ends, even early picks, do not contribute significantly right away. It often takes most tight ends two or three seasons to really hit their stride because of how difficult this position is with all of the responsibilities that come with it. Just take a look around the NFL at the top tight ends; most weren’t first-round picks.

So if the odds say that regardless of where a tight end is taken, they will have to have time to develop, waiting until Day 2 to address that need while getting a more immediate impact in Round 1 does make sense. This rings especially true with this year’s tight end class, given how talented it is overall–although Brian Gutekunst has been very good at going one direction when we are all looking another.