Breaking down Packers compensation in Aaron Rodgers’ trade

It had been nearly six weeks since Aaron Rodgers went on the Pat McAfee Show and declared that he wanted to play for the New York Jets. Now finally, just before the draft, the Jets and Green Bay Packers came to an agreement on a trade package.

Although I believe that Brian Gutekunst and the Packers did very well for themselves in this trade, Zach Kruse of Packers Wire summed it up best by saying that this ended as a win-win. Green Bay has to be happy with the compensation they received, while the Jets get hope by acquiring a four-time MVP and future Hall of Famer.

So with that in mind, let’s take a closer look at what the Packers received in this franchise-altering trade.

The trade details

Packers receive: 13th pick (first round), 42nd pick (second round), 207th pick (sixth round), and a conditional 2024 second-round pick.

Jets receive: Aaron Rodgers, the 15th pick (first round), and the 170th pick (fifth round).

"“It was very important for us (to get draft compensation in 2023),” said Gutekunst via Packers.comPackers.com. “It wouldn’t have been the end of the world but at the same time it would have certainly changed things, so getting it done ahead of time was important. I just think certainty the capital for this year was very important. Certainly more valuable than future stuff for our football team. There were a number of reasons but that’s why.”“Moving forward with compensation in this year’s draft was very important to us,” Gutekunst later added."

What this all means for the Packers

– Using the Rich Hill trade value chart as my guide to help quantify the 2023 draft capital that was swapped, the Packers gave the Jets 323 points (picks 15 and 170) and acquired 481 points (picks 13, 42, and 207). The difference in value is 158 points, which equates to about the 38th pick in this year’s draft. To take this a step further, Bill Barnwell of ESPN calculated the trade compensation with the conditional draft pick included. Using the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, that 2024 selection, coupled with the rest of the draft picks traded, netted the Packers, from a value standpoint, the ninth overall pick, if Rodgers were to play over 65% of the snaps and the Jets earned the 22nd pick in the 2024 draft.

– With Aaron Rodgers on the team, he came with a $31.6 million cap hit. Without him, he leaves behind a dead cap hit of $40.3 million. This means that the Packers’ available cap space has been decreased from $21.4 million down to roughly $12 million. Some good news is that Tom Pelissero reported that before this trade takes place, Rodgers will be reworking his deal with the Packers, which should provide some cap relief. So perhaps his dead cap hit won’t be as large.

– It’s important to note what wasn’t included in this trade. The Packers do not have to pay any of Aaron Rodgers’ nearly $60 million guaranteed salary. Had that been a part of the deal, for every dollar of the salary they picked up, Rodgers’ dead cap hit would have increased by that same amount–worsening the Packers’ already tight salary cap situation.

– Also not included was any payback compensation that the Packers would have to send to the Jets in 2025 based on how long or how much Rodgers plays. Whether or not this was a key part of negotiations is unknown, but it was reported frequently in recent weeks.

– By acquiring the 13th pick, I believe this puts the Packers in a better position to select Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or I wouldn’t be surprised if they zeroed in on one of the top offensive linemen, Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones.

– An additional second-round pick in this year’s draft is crucial as well. The Packers have several needs they have to address, some of which they should do so multiple times. However, Day 2 of the draft is loaded at a few of those high-priority positions of need, including wide receiver, edge rusher, tight end, and interior defensive linemen. The Packers now have three Day 2 picks.

– Barring a major injury, Rodgers playing 65% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in 2023 is very reasonable, which would result in the second-round pick that the Packers received in 2024 turning into a first. Potentially equipped with two first-round picks next offseason, the Packers can either really begin to build around Jordan Love if he proves to be the guy, or if the opposite happens, they have the draft capital to position themselves to acquire a new quarterback near the top of the draft.

– There has been a lot of discussion around who has the leverage in these negotiations, but regardless of who you think “won” this trade – which we won’t truly know for a year or two – Gutekunst did well, as I referenced earlier. An improved first-round pick, an additional second-round pick, and a 2024 second that could easily become a one is a solid return for a quarterback who may only play one season. This return that Green Bay received does make me wonder if Rodgers has told New York that he would like to play beyond the 2023 season–that, of course, is just speculation on my part.

– The soft deadline for this deal to take place was always going to be the draft. Brian Gutekunst even mentioned that negotiations going beyond this point in the NFL calendar would make things all the more difficult for both sides. For the Packers, they get draft capital to use in 2023, something else that Gutekunst said was important, and by getting a trade done before June 1st, the Packers will absorb Rodgers’ contract in 2023 but be free of it in 2024.