Trading down in Round 1 makes all the sense for Packers
By Paul Bretl
Within the first three rounds of the NFL Draft under GM Brian Gutekunst, the Green Bay Packers have been aggressive. In each year that Gutekunst has been at the helm, they have traded up within that range and done so in the first round on three occasions.
This year, however, I expect to be different. This is no longer a team trying to maximize the years they have left with Aaron Rodgers but one in a transition period with Jordan Love. Now, having said that, this isn’t a team that is rebuilding either, as evidenced by all the contract restructures they did, pushing more salary cap charges to future years so that they could hang on to several key players.
In order for Green Bay to get their best evaluation of whether or not Love can be the guy moving forward, they have to put as many of the proper pieces around him so that he can be successful. With both Gutekunst’s and Matt LaFleur’s futures potentially tied to whatever happens with Love, you can bet that they want – or even need – him to find success in this first season. Success also doesn’t have to be defined by wins and losses either. In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, the Packers went 6-10, but there was progression and playmaking.
Trading up is typically for teams who either need or want a quarterback or teams who believe they are a player or two away. The Packers are currently neither. While, of course, they want to win games, the ultimate goal of this season is to know whether or not Love can be the long-term starter. The worst-case scenario for Green Bay is if, a year from now, there is uncertainty around that question–they need to either begin looking for their new quarterback in 2024 or confidently begin building a Super Bowl contender around Love.
The current state of the team is one of a few reasons why trading up makes little sense this year. In fact, the Packers should be looking to trade down.
We are all more than well aware that Green Bay’s salary cap situation has restricted them this offseason. The signings that they have been able to make are mostly one-year deals with very minimal cap hits. In 2024, even if Rodgers’ contract is completely off the books, things are still going to be tight as the Packers still feel the effects of previous offseasons. Salary cap guru Ken Ingalls projects that the Packers’ effective cap space for 2024 is currently $28.6 million over the projected ceiling.
One way to counteract this is by loading up on rookie contracts. These are four-year contracts that, in the grand scheme of the NFL salary cap, come with minimal cap hits, even for first-round picks. Adding more of these contracts will hopefully infuse the roster with talented contributors, which will alleviate some of the dependency on free agency to fill needs and also allow the Packers to clear some cap space at other positions in future years.
By trading up, the Packers would obviously be losing draft capital. If they move back, however, they would be gaining it–which is far more important given the current state of the team, both from a roster-building standpoint and a salary cap perspective.
This is also a roster with a number of needs to fill, which again, puts a premium on draft capital. Wide receiver, tight end, and the interior defensive line are all in similar positions where they have few players on the roster and minimal experience within each position group as well. Spending multiple draft picks on any one of these positions is well within reason.
In addition to that, while Gutekunst may not hit on all these positions, adding to edge rusher, safety, quarterback, offensive tackle, cornerback, and running back should be on his radar.
One last reason to trade down is that the strengths and weaknesses of this year’s draft class align pretty well with what the Packers’ needs are. Although safety and receiver must be addressed, unless Jaxon Smith-Njigba is available at pick 15, there really isn’t a player at either position that the Packers should be spending that pick on. On the flip side, at positions like cornerback, offensive tackle, tight end, and edge rusher, there will be plenty of options, especially early on. So even if Green Bay were to trade down, they would still be able to select someone who is on their board.
In a recent article, I went through five different trade-down scenarios with the Packers, using the Rich Hill trade value chart as my guide to see what they could accumulate in return. Click here to read more.
Trading down in the draft has certainly been a far more rare occurrence for the Packers under Gutekunst than trading up. But times are changing in Green Bay at the moment, and at least for 2023, their approach to the draft should as well.