Shortlist of Packers first round draft pick options using past trends
By Paul Bretl
During Brian Gutekunst’s tenure as GM of the Green Bay Packers, there have been tendencies and thresholds that he has often stuck to when in the draft, specifically the first round. Using these trends as our guide, I have put together my shortlist of first-round targets for the Packers.
I went through this same exercise last draft, but with Gutekunst going off-script by selecting a 24-year-old defensive tackle and a linebacker, neither Devonte Wyatt nor Quay Walker made my shortlist of options. However, until that happens again, for this year, we will consider those picks outliers rather than the new norm.
To begin, I used four big boards from Daniel Jeremiah, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Network, and The Draft Network to compile my list. I drew a line in the sand with the top 30 prospects because I had to start somewhere, and the names beyond that 30th slot haven’t been getting mid-first-round buzz.
I also didn’t include any quarterbacks, running backs, or interior offensive linemen since these are positions I don’t expect the Packers to target at this stage of the draft. Typically I wouldn’t have included tight end either, but given the need that Green Bay has at the position, I added that position group as well.
Below is that initial list, and from there, we will begin whittling it down. My goal with this was to get the list as small as possible, so that did mean being strict and adhering to what the specific tendencies are.
Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pittsburgh
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Will McDonald, Edge, Iowa State
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Derick Hall, Edge, Auburn
Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
The first threshold we will use is the 9.0 Relative Athletic Score mark. Of Gutekunst’s 42 draft picks that have logged a RAS, 30 have scored above 8.0, and 18 of those 30 over 9.0. In the first round specifically, excluding Jordan Love, the Packers’ six other draft picks have had an average RAS of 9.4, with Darnell Savage being the only one in the group to score below 9.0.
Also included in this section, I will cross off players who do not meet measurement thresholds that the Packers have traditionally stuck to at specific position groups. This includes Peter Skoronski not having 33″ arms, Will McDonald and Nolan Smith both being under 255 pounds, and Calijah Kancey being under 290 pounds. Here is who remains:
Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Derick Hall, Edge, Auburn
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
Next up, there will be some guesswork on my part. Several of the prospects still on the list either won’t be on the board when the Packers are on the clock or, at least based on expert mock drafts and what we have or haven’t heard, aren’t options within the middle portion of the first round.
Gone before the Packers pick: Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, and Tyree Wilson
Not in play at pick 15: Quentin Johnston, Darnell Washington, Cam Smith, Derrick Hall, Luke Musgrave, Bryan Bresee, and DJ Turner
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
The last cutdown will be based on the prospect’s age. As already mentioned, selecting Wyatt at 24 years old through this trend for a loop in 2022, but prior to that, of Gutekunst’s prior first-round draft picks, only Eric Stokes was 22 years old, while the rest were 21. So anyone who is 23 years or older was crossed off the list.
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The group of six names above is my final list of Packers’ first-round options. I could shrink this list even further by crossing off Porter and Banks because I do not think Gutekunst will take a first-round cornerback, although I can’t say that with complete confidence either.
Now, there are two things I want to point out. Paris Johnson is not on this list because he did not qualify for a Relative Athletic Score, but he probably would have scored above 9.0 and met the other metrics. You’ll also notice Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t listed either, with a RAS of 8.34, but he is someone not included who I also believe the Packers would pick.
Michael Mayer is one other name that I believe could be in play at 15 for the Packers, given his well-rounded skill set and their need at the position. With that said, at tight end in particular, there is potentially added value that can be had in waiting to address this need on Day 2 of the draft.
Again, my goal was to create as concise of a list as possible and to do so meant being fairly strict with the thresholds established.