3 X-Factors for Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 vs Heat

The Milwaukee Bucks may not see it this way, but Game 2 against the Miami Heat is a must-win. Teams who go up 2-0 in a 7-game series have won the series 92 percent of the time. The situation would be worse for Milwaukee, as they head to Miami for Games 3 and 4.

The task will not be easy. Giannis Antetokounmpo was listed as doubtful on the injury report, even after head coach Mike Budenholzer said he was “optimistic” Antetokounmpo would be ready to play in Game 2.

Nevertheless, Milwaukee is fully capable of rebounding and evening up the series. They’ve been down 0-1 plenty of times before and have mounted the comeback. For them to right the ship, these three x-factors will be essential to watch.

The Milwaukee Bucks are looking to rebound in Game 2 against the Miami Heat and will need these three players to step up.

Brook Lopez-Bam Adebayo matchup

Defense. Defense. Defense. It all comes down to defense for the Bucks. And with Brook Lopez at the heart of the D, we look at him first.

Lopez played conservatively against Bam Adebayo in Game 1 (and that’s a conservative statement). He constantly sagged off the Heat big man whether he was guarding him in the pick-and-roll, off the ball or when Adebayo had the rock in his hands. He constantly gave him space, even inside the free throw line. Did I mention that he played less than aggressively?

Adebayo struggled a bit in the first half, but found his shooting stroke in the second half, knocking down eight of 12 points for 17 points. He finished the game 9-for-17 with Lopez as the primary defender.

Lopez can’t give him that much space. I’m not saying he has to pressure him at the three-point line, but he at least needs to pick him up at the free throw line. Adebayo was so comfortable in Game 1 that he laughed at Lopez’s defense. Lopez has the length to take a few steps up and still protect the rim.

Transition

Miami was focused on transition in Game 1, looking to exploit Milwaukee on both ends. Defensively, the Heat ensured the Bucks didn’t get anything easy. They got back and set into their halfcourt defense, so the Bucks had to score against that unit. It worked. The Bucks only had six fast break points.

On the other side, Miami leaked out on four occasions and got uncontested buckets following Bucks’ shots. Jimmy Butler ran the floor three times, beat the entire defense down the court and got a shot at point-blank range. That’s unacceptable. I know the Bucks want to punish a small Miami team on the offensive glass, but they still need the highest guy to get back in transition.

Three-point shooting

This was the ol’ double-outlier three-point shooting performance we’ve seen far too many times in the last five postseasons. The Heat were unconscious, making 60 percent of their outside attempts, while the Bucks couldn’t hit the water if they fell out of a boat, making just 24.4 percent of theirs.

Miami’s help defense aggressively shifted toward the ball on pick-and-roll action and any drives toward the paint. This left shooters open for Milwaukee–they just have to knock them down.

Milwaukee also can’t get comfortable chucking threes if they aren’t falling. They have to take the ball down low and get some shots closer to the bucket against a small Heat team, if they can’t make their outside shots. Finding that balance will be important.