Milwaukee Bucks Playoffs Notebook: Series preview vs Miami Heat

The Milwaukee Bucks will face a familiar foe, the Miami Heat, in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs.

The two teams split the regular season series 2-2 and are very familiar with each other. This will be the third time in four years they’ve tipped-off in the postseason, with the Heat completing a gentleman’s sweep in the 2020 semi-finals and the Bucks winning 4-0 in the 2021 first-round.

Many details go into a playoff series and below are the key matchups and intriguing storylines I’ll be watching heading into Game 1.

With the Milwaukee Bucks set to take on the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, here are the key notes to be aware of.

• Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler. This series will be all about how the Heat star. He’s vital to everything they do on both ends of the court and will be the central component of both team’s gameplans.
• Butler loves to attack mismatches; the best way he creates them is by setting screens or receiving them. He’ll be searching for every opportunity to get Grayson Allen or Jevon Carter matched up with him.
• On the other hand, Milwaukee will likely implement a couple of different defensive coverages to avoid those assignments. I expect them to switch screens when it’s set by Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Wesley Matthews or Jae Crowder’s man. On all other screens, Butler’s primary defender will have to fight through the pick.
• Holiday will likely get the first crack at Butler in the starting lineup. However, Matthews, Crowder and even Giannis Antetokounmpo will probably spend a lot of time on him. Holiday is excellent and avoiding screens and will need to do so in specific circumstances. He can’t afford someone like Tyler Herro screening him off Butler and allowing Allen to match up with the Heat star.
• I’m calling this the Butler-proof lineup: Holiday-Wesley Matthews-Khris Middleton-Jae Crowder-Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee could switch everything with that group and prevent Butler from hunting mismatches. Lopez could also be substituted for Matthews if they want to switch 1-4 and play drop coverage with Lopez. Look for one of those units to be the one they close tight games with.
• Bam Adebayo is the second key to the Heat’s success. The 70 shots he took against Milwaukee this season were the most against any opponent. He spent a lot of time against Brook Lopez and made 26 of his 44 shot attempts (59 percent) in that matchup.

• That mid-range shot will be there all series for Adebayo, who makes 47 percent of his looks between 4-14 feet, according to Cleaning the Glass. Lopez will likely stick in the drop coverage until Miami shoots them out of it.
• Also, keep your eye on dribble handoffs between Butler and the Heat’s shooters. Lopez plays way off Adeabayo, and that’s the best way to negate the defense and create an open shot.
• Miami’s offense is the worst, by far, of any remaining playoff teams. The Bucks’ defense is one of the best. Milwaukee should be able to shut them down.
• The Heat have a strong defense that loves to mix up coverages. In their fourth and final matchup this season, Miami showed the Bucks drop coverage, hedging, playing at the level of the screen, and zone. Milwaukee has to be ready for it all.
• When Love is defending the screener, he hedges. The Bucks should be able to get Lopez wide-open pick-and-pop threes as a result.
• Antetokounmpo has to attack the paint whenever a defender not named Adebayo is on him. Miami does a good job preventing shots at the rim, but allows a high percentage of shots to fall when a team gets there.
• The Bucks can’t be overly dependent on the three-ball. Miami will allow them to bomb away from the outside all day long. Milwaukee must continue to run their offense, probe the paint and kick out when necessary. We’ve seen them get cold from downtown in too many playoff games, and they’re too talented to let this Heat squad deter them.

• Overall, Miami doesn’t have enough weapons on either end of the court. Milwaukee should have plenty of opportunities to create mismatches and exploit them. My prediction is Bucks in 5.