ESPN Draft Predictor: Probability of top prospects being available for Packers
By Paul Bretl
Will your favorite prospect be available for the Green Bay Packers at pick 15, or won’t they? That’s the big question every draft season.
Although there is no exact science when it comes to predicting when most prospects will be selected, ESPN analytics did their best to determine the probability that a player will be selected at each applicable draft slot.
As explained by Seth Walder, the analytics tool takes into account expert mock drafts, team needs, and scouts and grades as inputs to determine the odds that a prospect is available at a certain point in the draft.
So using this tool, let’s take a look at the chances that the Packers have of landing some of the top draft prospects in this year’s class.
Jaxon Smith-Njibga, WR, Ohio State
30% chance of availability at pick 15
Smith-Njigba is the best route runner in this year’s draft class and would be an excellent compliment to Christian Watson. While Watson is able to stretch the field, Smith-Njigba would be able to take advantage of the extra space that’s created underneath. According to the ESPN Draft Day Predictor, the sweet spot for Smith-Njigba to be selected is in the 11-12 range.
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
20% chance of availability at pick 15
The Packers need to bolster their edge rusher depth and need more overall consistency. Without Rashan Gary during the second half of last season, Green Bay struggled to create regular pressure. Van Ness very much fits the mold of what the Packers look for at edge rusher–from his size and athleticism to his ability to line up inside, another area where more depth is needed. Where Van Ness has the highest probability of being taken is between picks 8-10.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
80% chance of availability at pick 45
Unfortunately, Musgrave’s 2022 season was cut short due to injury, but between his athletic testing and what he put on tape during just a few games this past season, where he averaged over 15 yards per catch, he does bring dynamic upside to the position as a pass catcher. On top of that, he has over 500 career run-blocking snaps in Oregon State’s outside zone run scheme.
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
40% chance of availability at pick 15
Whether as a run blocker or pass blocker, Johnson was one of the best offensive tackles in college football last season. He would immediately have the opportunity to start at right tackle for the Packers, allowing Zach Tom to compete inside while Yosh Nijman comes off the bench. Tackle depth isn’t a huge need in 2023, but it potentially becomes one in 2024.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
5% chance of availability at pick 45
In a very deep tight end class, Mayer is considered by many the best well-rounded prospect at the position. With his ability to impact both the passing and running games, he would add some unpredictability to the Packers’ tight end room – an element that was missing last season – and help Matt LaFleur achieve that illusion of complexity.
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
30% chance of availability at pick 45
Washington was one of the best blocking tight ends in football in 2022. However, with his athletic abilities, he possesses upside as a pass-catcher as well. Although not targeted heavily, Washington averaged over 16 yards per catch last season and was one of the best tight ends at pick-up YAC. Right away, he would impact the run game for the Packers and be a red zone threat.
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
70% chance of availability at pick 15
Murphy was a consistently productive player at Clemson, both as a pass rusher and run defender. He put up impressive testing numbers at his pro day and would immediately become a key member of the Packers’ edge rusher rotation.
Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
50% chance of availability at pick 78
Rice is a great fit for the LaFleur offense. He can win at all four levels of the field, is terrific with the ball in his hands, can be moved around the formation, and is a willing run blocker.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
15% chance of availability at pick 45
Branch is considered the best safety in this draft class, but whether the Packers are interested may depend on where they view he can play. Although listed as a safety, Branch spent most of his career in the slot, where Green Bay already has several options on the roster. What they need is a more traditional middle-of-the-field defender at the position. For what it’s worth, Branch also posted a RAS below 8.0.
Will McDonald, Edge, Iowa State
15% chance of availability at pick 45
Brian Gutekunst attended the Iowa State pro day, and the team had McDonald in for an official pre-draft visit–so there is some interest here. McDonald isn’t nearly as heavy as the other edge rushers on the roster, but a change of pace pass rusher could be valuable. When Joe Barry was with the Rams, that defense typically used lighter edge rushers.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon & Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
5% chance of availability at pick 15
I paired these two together because while cornerback is far from a major need for the Packers, this is a very deep draft class full of athletes at the position. Add all that up, and if one of the top options were available for Green Bay at pick 15, I’m not so sure that Brian Gutekunst could pass on taking either.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
10% chance of availability at pick 78
Another well-rounded tight end prospect that can impact the Packers’ offense in multiple ways–which again, adding that element should be a point of emphasis in this draft. Based on ESPN’s predictor, however, if the Packers want LaPorta, they’ll have to take him in round two.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
50% chance of availability at pick 78
Tillman was an effective pass catcher at all levels of the field at Tennessee. Add that ability with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, who are going to be taking on larger route-running responsibilities, and that versatility at the receiver position is going to make it difficult for defenses to decipher who is doing what pre-snap.