5 Trade down scenarios for Green Bay Packers in 2023 NFL Draft

Under GM Brian Gutekunst, the Green Bay Packers have been much more willing to trade up in the NFL Draft than to move down. In fact, in every draft under Gutekunst so far, the Packers have traded up within the first three rounds.

However, as I wrote recently, I don’t expect that to be the case this year. You can read more here, but in short, the Packers aren’t one player away from being a Super Bowl contender. They also have several positions that lack depth and must be addressed, along with Green Bay still somewhat restricted by the salary cap in 2024.

Add all that up, and what the Green Bay Packers need right now is as many inexpensive and hopefully talented rookie contracts on the books as they can get. If they trade up, depending on how far they want to climb, they’ll be losing at least one, if not two, draft picks to do so.

For the reasons just mentioned, my guess is that the Packers are more likely to trade down from 15 than to trade up. So if that’s the case, what does that look like for Green Bay?

Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, which assigns a numeric value to each draft pick, helping to quantify the trade, let’s take a look at five trade down scenarios, to get an idea of what additional draft picks the Green Bay Packers could accumulate. My goal was to get the picks that were swapped as close to equal in value as possible.

Packers trade down to pick 17 with Pittsburgh

Packers receive: picks 17 and 120 (Round 4)

Packers give up: picks 15 and 235 (Round 7)

Packers trade down to pick 19 with Tampa Bay

Packers receive: picks 19 and 82 (Round 3)

Packers give up: picks 15, 149 (Round 5), and 170 (Round 5)

Note: this trade took some extra maneuvering because the Bucs do not have a fourth-round pick

Packers trade down to pick 21 with the LA Chargers

Packers receive: picks 21, 85 (Round 3), and 200 (Round 6)

Packers give up: pick 15

Packers trade down to pick 24 with Jacksonville

Packers receive: picks 88 (Round 3), 121 (Round 4), and 185 (Round 6)

Packers give up: pick 15

Packers trade down to pick 26 with Dallas

Packers receive: picks 26 and 58 (Round 2)

Packers give up: pick 15

Final Thoughts

– In order for the Packers to consider trading down, there will need to be several players available that are ranked somewhat similarly on their big board. With no one standing out in this scenario, Green Bay chooses extra draft capital while still confident they will get someone they like.

– The Packers often covet premier positions in the first round of the draft. On Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent big board, 14 of the top 25 players were either edge rushers, cornerbacks, offensive tackles, or interior defensive linemen. Just another reason that Green Bay could trade down from pick 15.

– Although I don’t expect the Packers to drop all the way down into the mid to late 20s, it is something that we’ve seen Gutekunst do previously. During the 2018 draft, prior to moving back up to select Jaire Alexander, Green Bay traded down with New Orleans, moving from pick 14 to 27.

– Even dropping down only two spots with the Steelers nets the Packers an additional fourth-round pick, where over the years, we’ve seen them have a lot of success finding talent and impact players can still be found. Look no further than the 2022 draft, where Green Bay selected Zach Tom and Romeo Doubs.

– Let’s say the Green Bay Packers were willing to trade down to pick 26 with Dallas, and they also received a second-round pick from the New York Jets for trading Aaron Rodgers–that would give them four picks within the top 60. Not a bad proposition for a team transitioning and in need of young impact players on rookie deals. But again, if they do trade back, I’m guessing it won’t be that far.

– Positions where the Packers need more depth incldue safety, tight end, the interior defensive line, wide receiver, and edge rusher. I also wouldn’t be surprised if offensive tackle or cornerback is on Gutekunst’s radar in round one either.