Don’t expect Packers to trade up early on in 2023 NFL Draft

If you’re hoping that the Green Bay Packers move up from the 15th pick in the first round, or even from pick 45 in the second round, to get a high-impact player, I have a feeling that you’re going to be disappointed.

During Brian Gutekunst’s tenure as general manager, he has been very willing to trade up early on in the draft. In 2018, after initially trading down, he moved back up to take Jaire Alexander. In 2019, he moved up in round one to take Darnell Savage and then did the same in 2020 to select Jordan Love. In 2021, he traded up the third round for Amari Rodgers, and last year, he jumped a number of spots in round two to select Christian Watson.

However, in 2023, the Packers find themselves in the midst of a transition. Now, that isn’t to say they don’t need players who can make an impact right away or that they don’t want to win games–their goal should still be to put the best team possible around Love. But with a number of needs to address and the team in a salary cap bind, what they really need are more inexpensive rookie contracts.

Green Bay’s interior defensive line room has just five players on the roster, with only three of them having any NFL experience–and the receiver position is in the same boat. At tight end, of the four players on the roster, only Josiah Deguara has any significant experience, and the safety room is in need of upgrades.

From a salary cap perspective, we know that the Packers are operating frugally this offseason because of it, and if we look ahead to 2024, to a lesser degree, they will still be feeling the effects of the last few offseasons. Ken Ingalls, who independently tracks Green Bay’s salary cap situation, has their effective salary cap space at $28.6 million over the projected cap next season.

In an effort to create needed cap space a year from now, the Packers may end up moving on from key veteran contributors such as David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Rasul Douglas, among potentially others.

Add it all up, the lack of depth at several positions, the Packers’ likely tight salary cap situation in 2024, along with the need to possibly replace several starters, and what Green Bay needs at the moment is as many draft picks as they can get. This approach will hopefully infuse the roster with a number of young, talented, and inexpensive players.

On the flip side, if the Packers were to trade up in the first round, depending on how far they want to move, they could end up with two or three fewer draft picks. Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, if the Packers wanted to move to pick 12, they would have to give up their fourth and fifth-round picks. If they wanted to move to pick nine, it would take their third and fifth-round picks. If Green Bay wanted to jump all the way to pick seven, it would require their second-round pick to do so.

In fact, for the reasons already discussed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Green Bay chose to trade down in the first round in an effort to stockpile an additional draft pick or two.

As always, there are exceptions that could cause Gutekunst to throw caution to the wind as he tries to move up the draft board, something he has done in every draft up to this point. But given the current state of the Packers roster and salary cap situations, my guess is that they stay put at pick fifteen.