Packers need TE help, but do they take one at pick 15?

Tight end is one of the biggest positional needs that the Green Bay Packers have entering the 2023 NFL Draft, but will they spend their first-round pick on the position? I tend to think that they won’t.

Green Bay is in need of both playmaking and depth at tight end. Many of the 2022 playoff teams, especially those who made a deep run, had an impactful player at the tight end position, but for the Packers, that was often a missing element.

In the passing game last season, Robert Tonyan was the Packers’ only consistent option, and although he was reliable, he averaged just 8.9 yards per catch. As far as the depth goes, Josiah Deguara is the only player with any real experience on offense, and there are only four tight ends in total on the roster.

Fortunately, for the Packers, this is one of the deeper tight end classes we’ve seen in a number of years. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com ranked the tight end class as the second-best positional group in this year’s draft. Daniel Jeremiah, meanwhile, said following the NFL Combine that he had 11 tight ends with third-round grades or better–an absurd amount.

So if you add all of that up, the Packers selecting a tight end at pick 15 makes all the sense in the world. It’s a major need, and there will be plenty of talented options. However, while it makes sense, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I expect it to happen, either.

The biggest reason behind this thought process comes down to value. A majority of the rookie tight ends selected over the last 20 years, including early-round picks, just do not contribute in a significant way that first NFL season. An article from Jamison Hensley of ESPN from 2018 noted that only two rookie tight ends since 2003 had recorded over 600 receiving yards. Since then, only Kyle Pitts has joined that small group.

There are a lot of responsibilites that come with playing tight end that make the jump from college to the NFL a difficult one. They need to know blocking techniques and assignments like an offensive tackle while also knowing route concepts like a receiver. Oftentimes with tight ends, it isn’t until Years 2 or 3 that we really see them making consistent contributions.

Whether the Packers take a tight end in round one, round two, or even round three, history tells us that either way, that prospect won’t have a huge impact as a rookie. So in terms of value and impact at pick 15, that selection could be better utilized on an edge rusher or receiver, for example, if the right player is available.

Other factors on why Green Bay may not address tight end right away include that it just hasn’t been a position that they’ve typically coveted early on in the draft, and I’ll guess that one of the reasons why is because of what was just discussed. The last time the Packers took a first-round tight end was back in 2000 when they selected Bubba Franks.

On top of that, and as already mentioned, this tight end class is extremely deep. So if one isn’t taken right away, Green Bay will still have quality options on the board in rounds two and three.

Now, to play devil’s advocate, just last year, the Packers took 24-year-old Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quay Walker in the first round, breaking two long-standing norms when it comes to a prospect’s age and the position they play with those selections. Perhaps Brian Gutekunst does the same by selecting a tight end this year.

I also need to mention that although this is a loaded tight end class, and the impact from many may be minimal initially, the ultimate goal of the draft is to project who a player can become, not who they are on draft night. Meaning that if the Packers believe that one of the top prospects has a far greater upside than the others, it would make sense to spend the necessary draft capital to get that player.

With all of that said, tight end needs to be a major priority for the Green Bay Packers. If they don’t select one at pick 15, they absolutely will on Day 2, and given the depth of this class coupled with the Packers’ need, I also fully expect them to leave the draft with at least two tight end selections—it just might not happen right away.