Aaron Rodgers’ trade rumor: Packers might not get first-round pick in return

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) is hit by New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91) as he releases the ball during their football game Sunday, October 16, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-WisconsinApc Packvsjets 1016221363djp
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) is hit by New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91) as he releases the ball during their football game Sunday, October 16, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-WisconsinApc Packvsjets 1016221363djp /
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One of the first reports surrounding the Green Bay Packers and an Aaron Rodgers trade shared that the team wanted “at least” two first-round picks in any deal. It turns out they might be extremely lucky to get just one.

In a recent mailbag by Albert Breer, he predicts the prize of a Rodgers-to-Jets trade will be New York’s 45th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Not their 13th overall pick or even a 2024 first-rounder. He also speculated a conditional 2025 pick could be a part of the deal depending on how Rodgers plays and whether he plays in 2024.

It’s safe to say that’s not what Packers fans had in mind when envisioning a Rodgers trade.

The reality of an Aaron Rodgers trade package is coming into perspective and it might not result in a first-round pick for the Green Bay Packers.

Many fans envisioned the Packers receiving the 13th overall pick AND another premium selection. A 2024 first would be ideal, but another second rounder would suffice. After all, it was just last season when Rodgers won his second consecutive MVP award and fourth overall. He was a top-two NFL quarterback and looked revitalized under head coach Matt LaFleur.

Unfortunately, there is more to it than on-the-field play.

Rodgers is coming off a down season, but New York still believes he can be the guy to lead them to the promised land. It has more to do with his salary and the annual retirement process he goes through.

Whoever Rodgers plays for in 2023 will have to pay him $59.465 million, even if that isn’t all on the salary cap. That’s a ton of money to pay someone, plus give up premium draft picks. New York may ask Green Bay to eat some of that, but their financial ability will be limited.

He’s also due $49 million in 2024, another hefty price tag for an aging quarterback. Speaking of age, Rodgers will turn 40 in the middle of the season and debates retirement every offseason. Will New York really want to give up a high draft pick for one year of a player?

The last factor is other teams who are interested in his services. The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders are two teams who have been rumored to be a part of the mix. However, they’ve each separated themselves from the rumors in recent weeks (if Miami is smart, they’ll leak their interest to drive up the price tag for their division rivals).

Next. 3 realistic trade offers for Rodgers. dark

Adding up all of those factors could result in a reduced return for Green Bay that doesn’t include a first-round pick.