Contract Projections for the Packers 14 Unrestricted Free Agents

This is setting up to be another frugal offseason for the Green Bay Packers as they once again will be fighting with the salary cap.

At the moment, Over the Cap has the Packers at $16.4 million over the 2023 salary cap. While Green Bay does have a number of contract restructures at their disposal to help get them under the salary cap prior to the March 15th deadline when the new league year begins, they will likely be limited in free agency. In addition to getting out of the red, the Packers will also need cap space for the practice squad, the draft class, any in-season spending, and of course, free agency.

Green Bay has several positions that they could address in free agency, including tight end, safety, wide receiver, edge rusher, and interior defensive lineman. However, before they can explore outside options, the Packers have 14 of their own unrestricted free agents to make decisions on.

Here is a closer look at those 14 free agents, along with contract projections from Over the Cap (OTC) on a per-year basis.

Allen Lazard, WR

OTC Contract Projection: $10.8 million per year

This past season was a career year for Allen Lazard in many categories—not to mention that he continued to be a valuable member of the run game as a blocker. Although he provided Aaron Rodgers with a reliable presence in the passing game, particularly on third downs, he wasn’t that No. 1 target that the Packers needed, and I don’t think that comes as a surprise to many. I imagine the Packers would love to have Lazard back, but at nearly $11 million per year for a player that is hopefully the third receiving option, that’s likely not in the cards for the cap-strapped Packers.

Robert Tonyan, TE

OTC Contract Projection: $4.89 million per year

Tonyan was, again, a very reliable pass-catching option for Rodgers, hauling in over 80% of his passes in 2022. However, his 8.9 yards per catch ranked near the bottom of the NFL at the tight end position. As I’ve written before, I do think that, in part, Tonyan’s low yards per catch was, at times, a product of how he was utilized, with the majority of his targets coming within five or so yards of the line of scrimmage. But with that said, Tonyan did struggle to make defenders miss as well. The Packers very much need more playmaking at tight end, but with Josiah Deguara, Nick Guggemos, and Austin Allen the only players under contract, they also need reliable depth as well, which at the right price, Tonyan would certainly provide.

Keisean Nixon, CB

OTC Contract Projection: $1.73 million per year

Nixon, who was named an All-Pro, gave the Packers an actual weapon on special teams. Out of all return men, Nixon was the only one with more than 1,000 kick return yards. He ranked fifth in both kick and punt return averages as well. Nixon provided a huge boost for the offense, giving a unit that struggled to move the ball improved field position. An offense that puts up more points also puts the defense in more advantageous situations. Re-signing him should be a must–Nixon was a game-changer.

Justin Hollins, Edge Rusher

OTC Contract Projection: $1.68 million per year

Hollins joined the Packers late in the season after being claimed off waivers and gave the defense some valuable snaps at edge rusher when depth was a concern. From Week 12 through the end of the season, Hollins ranked 26th in PFF’s pass rush win rate and 27th in run stop rate out of 104 eligible defenders. Once again, edge rusher depth is going to be a concern for the Packers this offseason.

Dallin Leavitt, S

OTC Contract Projection: $1.16 million per year

Leavitt played a key role in the Packers’ turnaround on special teams. He finished second on the team in special teams snaps, playing on a variety of units, while finishing second on the team in total tackles as well. Aaron Rodgers had also commented on a few occasions how valuable of a member Leavitt was in the locker room.

Eric Wilson, LB

OTC Contract Projection: $1.03 million per year

Like Leavitt, Wilson was another core special teams player. Despite not joining the Packers until early October, Wilson finished tied for second with Leavitt in total tackles and had a blocked punt. He was also PFF’s highest-graded special teams player for the entire 2022 season across the NFL.

Mason Crosby, K

OTC Contract Projection: $1.8 million per year

For the most, Crosby was once again a reliable kicker last season. He made 37 of his 39 extra-point attempts and 25 of 29 field goal attempts. He did, however, struggle on kicks of more than 50 yards and had one of the highest return rates on kickoffs in the NFL. In fact, there were two games where the Packers elevated Ramiz Ahmed from the practice squad to handle kickoffs. For the reasons mentioned, the Packers could choose to move on, given Crosby’s limitations at this point in his career. With that said, reliable kickers don’t grow on trees, as we’ve seen, and $1.8 million isn’t a huge commitment.

Adrian Amos, S

OTC Contract Projection: $2.5 million per year

Amos has been one of the more reliable safeties in football, but 2022 was a very uncharacteristically up-and-down season for him. Safety is perhaps the biggest need this offseason, both in terms of improved play but also depth. Because of past contract restructures and voided years added on to Amos’ deal, even if he’s on a new team in 2023, he leaves behind a hefty dead cap hit of $7.9 million. The Packers currently have a window where if at the right price, they get a new deal done prior to the voided years terminating, they could keep Amos at a lower cap hit than if they let him walk and incur the dead cap hit. However, it remains to be seen if there is mutual interest in that happening. If this is what Amos is actually commanding on the market, then bringing him back is an easy decision, although it does seem a bit low. For reference, Spotrac is projecting that Amos earns $6.8 million per year.

Marcedes Lewis, TE

OTC Contract Projection: $3.28 million per year

I have to think that if Lewis wants to return, the Packers will be happy to have him, as he was still one of the best blocking tight ends in football last season. But with that said, is that what Lewis wants? He could choose to retire or follow Rodgers to his new team if that’s what ends up happening.

Dean Lowry, IDL

OTC Contract Projection: $2.27 million per year

Lowry went from generating 42 pressures and five sacks in 2021 to just 17 and one in 2022. He also ranked in the bottom third among interior defensive linemen in PFF’s run-stop rate. In short, Lowry proved to be replaceable last season, with the interior defensive line unit continuing to play some of their best football with him on IR. However, in a reduced role as the fourth option and in this price range, I wouldn’t rule out the Packers re-signing him.

Jarran Reed, IDL

OTC Contract Projection: $6.78 million per year

Reed’s play in the final few games played a key role in the defensive front’s late-season surge, which included eight pressures and five stops in the last three games. DeVonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton need more reps in 2023, but bringing back Reed to fill a smaller role — if at the right price, and I’m not sure this is it — could lead to a more consistent impact from him with fewer snaps and being put in more advantageous positions to make plays. One of the easiest ways that the Packers’ defense can improve next season is with better and more consistent play in the trenches.

Randall Cobb, WR

OTC Contract Projection: $1.98 million

Cobb was incredibly efficient on third downs last season. His future with the Packers very much feels tied to Rodgers’ future. If Rodgers returns, Cobb probably does as well. If Rodgers retires or is playing elsewhere, I don’t foresee Cobb returning.

Corey Ballentine, CB

OTC Contract Projection: $965,000 per year

During the latter portion of the season, Ballentine was a core member of the Packers’ special teams unit, with 106 special teams snaps from Week 10 on. Ballentine won’t break the bank by any means, and if the Packers thought he performed well on special teams, they could bring him back, especially with an opening or two on the roster at cornerback.

Rudy Ford, S

OTC Contract Projection: $1.33 million per year

Ford began the season as a flier on special teams and was a very good one at that. As the season progressed, he saw his role on defense increase as he helped provide stability to the safety position as a willing tackler, and he often was in the right place, which resulted in several turnover opportunities. A new contract from the Packers makes complete sense, given the outlook of the safety position coupled with what Ford added to both the defense and special teams unit.