Packers trade Aaron Rodgers in mock draft, address 2 big needs in round one

A mock draft from the 33rd football staff has the Green Bay Packers trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, giving them two first-round selections in this year’s draft. The Packers then used those two picks to address arguably their biggest needs in the 2023 NFL Draft by selecting safety Brian Branch at 13th overall and then tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 15th overall selection.

Branch is listed as a safety, standing 6’0″ and weighing 193 pounds, but spent most of his time at Alabama in the slot–although he has experience as a box defender as well. During the last two seasons, where most of Branch’s playing time came, he was targeted 85 times and allowed a completion rate of 63% and 8.8 yards per catch, including only 6.8 yards in 2022, per PFF ($$). He’s been a very reliable tackler, missing only three during his entire career, and a very willing run defender.

Branch is The Draft Network’s highest-rated safety in this class and the 16th-best player overall. Keith Sanchez had this to say about him in his pre-draft report.

"“Overall, Branch is a versatile defensive back prospect who has the ability to make plus-level plays at every alignment. But teams who draft him are also getting a player who plays with intensity and a passion for the game that can help him become an influential team leader.”"

The Packers need both consistency and depth at the safety position. This was one of the more underwhelming positions in 2022, with Darnell Savage being benched and Adrian Amos having his most inconsistent season since coming to Green Bay. Too often, miscommunications on the back end led to a number of big plays for the opposing offense, along with missed tackles in the run game. As of now, only Savage, Vernon Scott, Tariq Carpenter, and James Wiggins are under contact.

Although Branch is considered a top safety in this class, I do wonder about his fit with the Packers. If they view him as a primary slot defender, then this is a pick that may not make much sense, given that the Packers have to find playing time for Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, and Eric Stokes, along with Savage being at his best when in the slot as well. However, if Green Bay believes that Branch can play the more traditional safety role, then this pick makes more sense.

At pick 15, the 6’4″ – 240 pound Kincaid has five years of playing experience, with the first two years coming at San Diego, but the bulk of his 150 targets came during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, including 87 this past season. During this two-year span, Kincaid caught 77% of his 123 targets at 13.5 yards per catch with 14 touchdowns.

Almost 55% of Kincaid’s snaps in 2022 came from the slot, with about one-third coming lined up in-line. He had over 500 run-blocking snaps over the last two seasons, and in 2022 specifically, Kincaid ranked 37th out of 98 tight ends in PFF’s run-blocking.

As a member of Matt LaFleur’s offense at the tight end position, Kincaid will have to be a capable and willing blocker, however, his real impact will come in the passing game–an area where the Packers very much need improvement.

The Draft Network has Kincaid listed as the third-best tight end in the 2023 draft class and the 42nd-ranked player overall. For a closer look at Kincaid’s game, here is a snippet of what Joe Marino wrote in his pre-draft report.

"“I love how competitive Kincaid is as an in-line blocker, but he lacks mass and functional strength, which makes him inconsistent in college and likely ineffective in the NFL. Opponents have no issues powering and playing through him. Ideally, Kincaid would be another inch taller with a touch more mass and a tick more explosive, but it’s hardly limiting to what he does best, and that is being a factor in the passing game.”"

As already alluded to, the Packers need more playing-making at the tight end position in 2023. Robert Tonyan was really the only option in the passing game at the position, and Tonyan would average only 8.9 yards per catch–one of the lowest averages among the position group last season. In part, that may have been a product of how Tonyan was utilized with his average depth of target at just over six yards, but he also struggled to make defenders miss, forcing just three missed tackles.

Along with needing a more dynamic presence to help the overall passing game, the Packers are also lacking depth at the position. Only three players are under contract at the moment, Josiah Deguara, and practice squad players Austin Allen and Nick Guggemos.

In addition to selecting a tight end early on in the draft, adding a veteran presence in free agency feels like a must as well to provide some stability to the position. Historically, most rookie tight ends don’t make a significant impact, given the difficulty of the position, with there being the need to affect the game as both a blocker and a pass catcher.

Clearly, tight end is a need, but will the Packers spend a first-round pick on the position? It’s not a position they have prioritized in the draft, but we said the same thing about linebacker last year. The good news is that at the top end of the draft, this is a deep class.