Tom Brady’s Retirement Impacts Aaron Rodgers Trade Value for Packers

Tom Brady announced his retirement from the NFL on Wednesday morning. His departure from football not only means that the Green Bay Packers won’t have to face him anymore, but this latest news does likely have some sort of an impact on Aaron Rodgers’ trade value.

Had Brady continued to play in 2023, he would have been a free agent and able to freely pick where he would want to play. Rodgers’ meanwhile, could also end up elsewhere, but to do so, it requires another team that is willing to give up draft capital along with taking on Rodgers’ contract, which includes nearly $60 million guaranteed in 2023.

Although Rodgers is a bit younger, it’s easy to see why some teams may have been more willing to try to sign Brady over trading for Rodgers. In short, Brady’s contract won’t cost as much, and that team also wouldn’t have to part with any draft capital in order to acquire him.

However, that scenario is now no longer available. If a team wants to add a sure-fire future Hall of Fame quarterback to their roster for 2023, Rodgers is now the only option, likely increasing his value, even if only incrementally. This could also potentially add another team or two to the trade mix, which again, is another factor that would likely help drive up Rodgers’ trade value, and that, of course, is a good thing for the Packers.

I think most can agree that Green Bay would receive at least one first-round pick for Rodgers, but beyond that is where we run into some unknowns. For all we know, Rodgers could retire after the 2023 season. He’s also coming off a very average year and has a hefty contract to absorb—all of which could impact his trade value. Perhaps the acquiring team would throw in a conditional pick that is dependent on Rodgers playing in 2024.

As I wrote recently, all of this is conjecture until Rodgers makes a decision on his future. One does have to wonder, however, if Brady retiring reduces the odds of Rodgers doing the same, that way five years from now, two of the game’s best quarterbacks don’t have to share the Hall of Fame stage.

It’s difficult to quantify or put into words how Brady’s retirement impacts Rodgers’ trade value, but what I will say is that this certainly doesn’t hurt it. In fact, to a degree, I think it’s safe to say it helped it with less competition on the 2023 quarterback market, which should help increase Rodgers’ price tag.