Following an incredibly disappointing 8-9 season, where do the Green Bay Packers go from here? There are a lot of unknowns entering this offseason, and although not said specifically, both Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur made it quite clear when meeting with reporters at the end of the season that there won’t be a rebuild in Green Bay.
To a degree, the Packers feel a bit stuck. Of course, a potential change at quarterback would be a big difference in 2023, but when it comes to the overall construction of the roster, this team may not look terribly different in the upcoming season. This means that if Green Bay is going to improve, internal development will be crucial to that happening.
As we look ahead to the coming months for Gutekunst and the Packers, as always, there will be plenty to address, but these seven key items should be at the top of the to-do list.
Packers offseason to-do list: Make a decision at the quarterback position
This is going to have to be the first domino to fall for the Green Bay Packers this offseason. As Aaron Rodgers said on the Pat McAfee Show this past week, while the trade speculation has ramped up, he still has not yet made a decision on whether he is going to retire, stay in Green Bay, or play elsewhere. However, he did very much sound at peace with the idea of being traded if that’s what is decided.
If traded before June 1st, the Packers will have to absorb a dead cap hit of about $40 million this season. The good news is that they will then have more cap flexibility in 2024, and as part of the trade package, they will receive 2023 draft pick(s) that can help them now. On the flip side, if Rodgers is traded after June 1st, for starters, his market may not be as robust as teams prepare for training camp, but also, the draft capital received by the Packers wouldn’t be until 2024. From a salary cap standpoint, this option is more friendly in 2023, with Rodgers’ dead cap hit being only $15 million compared to $40 million, but that is followed by another $24 million in dead cap on the books in 2024.
Unfortunately, as much as the Packers have tried to keep their Super Bowl window open, it feels like it has closed with the current roster. Coming off an 8-9 season, there is little improvement that can come from the outside, with not much spending power in free agency and really no worthwhile roster cuts available. In short, this roster could look very similar in 2023, and as we watch the NFL playoffs unfold and see the remaining four teams, the Packers don’t look close at all to competing with them.
If Rodgers does retire or is traded, it will finally be Jordan Love’s time. Even without Rodgers, I don’t expect a rebuild from the Packers.–it’s just not how they operate, and they need to give Love every opportunity to be successful so they can truly evaluate him as a quarterback. But if Rodgers does return, Love very well could be the one demanding a trade — and understandably so — after sitting on the bench for three seasons. Although if that is the case, he has very little leverage.
From a salary cap standpoint, because Love is still on his rookie deal, if the Packers wanted to have both quarterbacks on their 2023 roster again, they very easily could. However, it finally feels like we’ve hit the crossroads where a decision has to be made.
Packers offseason to-do list: If Love is back, make a decision on his fifth-year option
Love is entering Year 4 of his rookie contract, and as a former first-round pick, he has a fifth-year option for the 2024 season that the Packers can either choose to pick up or decline, but the decision has to be made this offseason before Green Bay even gets the chance to see him as a full-time starter.
The fifth-year contract is 100% guaranteed for the player, and as a quarterback, Love’s 2024 option will be in the $20 million range. When speaking with reporters during the season, Brian Gutekunst did say that they’ve seen enough of Love in practice and on the field to make a decision–although he didn’t really hint at what that meant.
My guess is that if, in fact, Rodgers is traded and Love is the starter in 2023, Green Bay will give him the benefit of the doubt and pick up his option for the 2024 season. At that point, if he showed enough in 2023, they can begin extension talks next offseason. If not, it’s only a one-year commitment on the Packers’ part as they search for their next starting quarterback.
For the sake of conversation, let’s say Rodgers does return; then what do the Packers do with Love’s option? I think if they do want to keep him for the 2023 season instead of trading him, picking that option up as a showing of good faith will be a must.
Packers offseason to-do list: Extend Rashan Gary
Of the decisions that the Packers and Gutey have to make this offseason, this is going to be one of the easier ones. Gary has cemented himself as one of the best edge rushers in football, ranking third among all edge rushers in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric.
Speaking of fifth-year options, Gary’s was picked up for the 2023 season, which means he is on a one-year deal that comes with a cap hit of $10.89 million. An extension, however, will not only keep one of the game’s best players in Green Bay past 2023, but it will also help lower Gary’s cap hit this season, something the Packers very much need. Ken Ingalls, who independently tracks the Packers’ salary cap, projects that an extension could create $3 million or more in cap space this season.
Much like the Packers did with Jaire Alexander in 2022, who was also going to be playing on a fifth-year option, this is a deal that will get done this spring. As far as structure, I imagine Gary’s deal, although different in price, will look similar to that of Kenny Clark’s, with a low base salary and cap hit early on, as it then increases each season.
Packers offseason to-do list: Get under the salary cap
Once again, the Green Bay Packers find themselves in a salary cap bind this offseason. At the moment, Over the Cap has them at more than $16 million over the 2023 projected salary cap, which is the eight-lowest amount of space this offseason.
The good news, I suppose, is that the Packers have a number of moves to get out of the red, most of which will come via contract restructures. This list of players includes David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Preston Smith, De’Vondre Campbell, Kenny Clark, Jaire Alexander, and Rasul Douglas. However, unlike in past seasons, there really aren’t any worthwhile veteran cuts available that would create significant cap savings. Jones and Bakhtiari are two candidates, but with Jones, if the Packers are serious about competing, that move makes little sense. With Bakhtiari, the cap savings just aren’t robust enough to justify the move.
The bad news is that relying on contract restructures to create that needed cap space means pushing additional cap charges to future years, only further stressing the Packers’ salary cap situation. Green Bay also isn’t going to have much spending power in free agency, which means there won’t be any big splashes this offseason.
Perhaps one under-the-radar move to watch would be Green Bay trading Darnell Savage, which would clear just under $8 million in cap space. As I discussed in an article, based on Gutey’s comments at the end of the season, I would guess that Savage is back in 2023. Also, the primary purpose of this move would be as a salary cap dump, rather than trying to maximize the return. It’s also important to note that given the construction of the safety position at the moment, the Packers may not have the luxury to make this move with their lack of depth.
Packers offseason to-do list: Address own pending free agents
The Packers have 17 of their own free agents this offseason to make decisions on. This group includes 14 unrestricted free agents and three restricted free agents.
Much like Marquez Valdes-Scantling a year ago, Allen Lazard may simply be able to earn more going elsewhere. Robert Tonyan was reliable, but the Packers need more playmaking at tight end. Safety is a position very much lacking depth, but Adrian Amos is coming off a down season and may earn more as a free agent.
Green Bay could use a veteran presence on the defensive line, so perhaps a reunion with either Jarran Reed or Dean Lowry makes sense at the right price. The futures of Marcedes Lewis and Randall Cobb very much feel tied to whatever decision Rodgers makes.
Then there are several core special teams players that are free agents, including Keisean Nixon, Eric Wilson, Dallin Leavitt, and Rudy Ford. I imagine that the Packers would like all four back, but that may not be possible. Also, what do the Packers do with Mason Crsoby? While there is a lot of uncertainty, I would anticipate that restricted free agents Yosh Nijman and Tyler Davis will be back.
Below is a look at all of the Packers’ 2023 free agents:
Unrestricted free agents
Adrian Amos, Dean Lowry, Mason Crosby, Marcedes Lewis, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Jarran Reed, Randall Cobb, Dallin Leavitt, Eric Wilson, Rudy Ford, Corey Ballentine, Keisean Nixon, and Justin Hollins
Restricted free agents
Yosh Nijman, Tyler Davis, and Krys Barnes
Packers offseason to-do list: Explore free-agent options at these four specific positions
Again, the Packers aren’t going to have a ton of flexibility to add to their roster in free agency, so any signing is likely going to be an inexpensive contract on a one or maybe two-year deal. Also, an important distinction is that re-signing one of their own free agents may very well count towards addressing a positional need–dipping their toe in free agency doesn’t necessarily mean a new player is going to be brought in.
While it can be difficult to decipher which specific players are on the Packers’ radar, there are four positions that make sense to add to in free agency. One is wide receiver, which at the moment, features a very young room with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, and Bo Melton all 2022 draft picks, while Jeff Cotton was a 2020 UDFA.
Both the tight end and safety positions are very thin at the moment, with Josiah Deguara, Nick Guggemos, and Austin Allen the only tight ends under contract, along with Darnell Savage, Tariq Carpenter, and James Wiggins the only safeties. A veteran presence at both positions could go a long way in providing some needed stability.
Lastly, adding to the interior defensive line room via free agency makes a lot of sense. Outside of Kenny Clark, this position group is filled with players in their third NFL season or younger. This is also a position group lacking some proven depth as well.
Adding to any of these positions in free agency shouldn’t deter the Packers from addressing the same needs in the draft. In fact, that should be encouraged and is something that Gutekunst has done frequently since becoming general manager. There are a number of occasions where Gutey signs a veteran in free agency, only to then select the same position early on in the draft.
The purpose of these signings is to add some stability to the position group. With the Packers’ lack of cap space, finding an impact player just isn’t going to happen–unless Gutey finds the next De’Vondre Campbell out there.
Packers offseason to-do list: Tackle the biggest positions of need
Whether it be through free agency, the draft, or both, the Packers have to tackle their biggest positional needs. I’ve already mentioned a few, with safety and tight end needing more reliable depth, along with both needing more playmaking. The receiver room needs a veteran and more talent overall, even with Watson and Doubs. The interior defensive line, meanwhile, was incredibly inconsistent in 2022, but a big part of the Packers’ defensive success during the last five games was due to the play up front. The best way to bolster the defense in 2023 is to add to the trenches.
Other positions not mentioned include edge rusher. This was a major concern entering the 2022 season, and we saw why when Rashan Gary went down with an injury, as there was very little consistent pressure without him on the field. Offensive tackle is an under-the-radar need. If Bakhtiari is back in 2023, the depth of this group looks quite good; however, there will be a lot of uncertainty in 2024, and the draft is about planning ahead and looking down the road.
A Day 3 running back should be on the Packers’ radar, but that need grows immensely if Green Bay does decide to move on from Aaron Jones. Kicker could also become a major priority if Crosby isn’t back.
For more on the Packers’ positional needs this offseason, I go position by position through their roster, evaluating the need of each unit. Click here to read more.