Re-sign or Let go and Prediction: Can the Packers re-sign Keisean Nixon?

March 15th is when NFL free agency begins, and the Green Bay Packers have 14 unrestricted free agents of their own to make decisions on.

Over the next few weeks, my “Re-sign or Let go & Prediction” series is back, where I will take a look at each of the Packers’ unrestricted free agents, laying out why Green Bay may try to re-sign them, why they would let them walk, and then I’ll make a prediction.

Up first in the 2023 edition is All-Pro kick returner, Keisean Nixon. Be sure to head over to Twitter to vote for what you think the Packers will do.

Why the Packers would re-sign Keisean Nixon

Where do I even begin? To put it simply, he was a game-changer for the special teams unit, giving the Packers a weapon at the position that they hadn’t had in many years. Having him on the field also then greatly benefitted the Green Bay offense as well.

As already mentioned, he was named a first-team All-Pro as a kick returner. Nixon finished the season as the only player in the NFL with over 1,000 kick return yards. He had the fifth-best average and was one of only four players with a touchdown. In addition to giving the Packers’ kick return unit a needed boost, he did the same on punts, averaging the fifth-best return rate in 2022, according to PFF ($$).

There were several factors that played into the Packers’ offensive turnaround over the second half of the season. Improved offensive line play and the emergence of Christian Watson were two big reasons, but Nixon giving that unit some much improved starting field position played a role as well. In fact, at one point late in the season, Aaron Rodgers wondered how the season might have been different for the Packers if Nixon had the return man role from the beginning — illustrating just how powerful his impact was.

Along with the special teams contributions, Nixon also gave the Packers some valuable defensive snaps from the slot, which is just another reason to have him back. Nixon allowed 22 receptions on 28 targets but gave up only 9.7 yards per catch. He also had an interception.

Why the Packers wouldn’t re-sign Keisean Nixon

I always do my best to think through any sort of valid reason why a team may move on from a player. However, when it comes to Nixon, the only reason that I can think of is that he ends up outside of the Packers’ price range.

At the moment, Green Bay is $16 million over the 2023 projected salary cap. They have a number of cap-creating moves at their disposal, most of which will come through contract restructures, but this is again going to be an offseason where there isn’t going to be much spending in free agency.

Prediction: The Packers re-sign Keisean Nixon

Both Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur made it fairly clear in their end-of-season press conferences that their goal is to remain competitive in 2023 rather than hitting the reset button. For one, rebuilding isn’t the Green Bay way, and two, when it comes to major cap-saving roster cuts, the Packers really don’t have many at their disposal.

Regardless of who is at quarterback, if the plan is to be competitive, then Keisean Nixon has to be a part of that blueprint–again, he was a major difference-maker, not only on special teams, but his impact was felt on both sides of the ball with his playmaking abilities on the return unit. The offense was in a better position to put up points with improved field position, and when playing with a lead, that always benefits the defense.

Between hiring Rich Bisaccia and signing special teams-specific free agents last offseason — one of which was Nixon — Gutekunst took a different approach with special teams than what they have in the past, and it paid off in Year 1. In the process, they struck gold in finding Nixon, and letting him walk would be a sign that the Packers were sliding into their old habits of not prioritizing special teams. For what it’s worth, Gutey told reporters after the season that the team did plan on taking a similar approach with special teams this offseason.

The Green Bay Packers have a number of their own free agents to make decisions on this offseason, but bringing Nixon back needs to be a priority.